兖矿能源：Q3成本控制有力，煤化工业务盈利继续回升

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A/Buy-H" rating for the company, with a target price of 19.84 RMB for A-shares and 12.86 HKD for H-shares [2] Core Views - Q3 performance showed a slight sequential improvement, exceeding market expectations [2] - Q3 net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.84 billion RMB, down 15.6% YoY but up 0.7% QoQ [2] - Cost control was effective, with coal chemical business profitability continuing to improve [2] - Q3 coal production increased 7% QoQ, with significant cost control achievements [2] - The company's dividend payout ratio remains among the industry leaders [2] Financial Performance - Q3 coal production reached 36.73 million tons, up 10% YoY and 7% QoQ [2] - Q3 coal sales were 31.82 million tons, up 7% YoY but down 1% QoQ [2] - Q3 coal chemical product sales were 1.95 million tons, down 8% YoY but up 5% QoQ [2] - Q3 coal chemical business revenue was 6.2 billion RMB, down 12% YoY and 1% QoQ [2] - Q3 coal chemical business gross profit was 1.5 billion RMB, down 18% YoY but up 14% QoQ [2] Future Outlook - The company's medium-to-long-term development strategy is gradually being implemented [2] - Growth advantages are prominent, with incremental production expected in Shandong, Xinjiang, Shaanxi-Mongolia, and Australia [2] - The Inner Mongolia Rongxin Chemical 800,000-ton olefin project and Xinjiang Energy Chemical are expected to be major growth drivers [2] - EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 are 1.50, 1.65, and 1.75 RMB per share respectively [2] Valuation - The report values the company at 12x 2025 PE for A-shares, resulting in a target price of 19.84 RMB [2] - Based on the AH share premium rate, the H-share target price is set at 12.86 HKD [2]