供给收缩或提振煤价，逢低再布局弹性标的 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 02 月 07 日 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 19,855.11 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 19,441.23 | 2026-02-02 配置机会》2026-01-31 2026-01-24 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 202 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [2][26]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline significantly in 2026 due to the revision of the RKAB quota, with production set at approximately 600 million tons, a notable decrease from 740 million tons in 2025 [6][7]. - The reduction in coal production is anticipated to lead to a tightening of coal supply, which may drive up global coal prices, particularly for thermal coal [7]. - The Indonesian government is implementing policies to control coal production and exports, aiming to enhance domestic energy security and increase fiscal revenue through coal export taxes [7]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the coal industry is 37, with a total market capitalization of approximately 198.55 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of about 194.41 billion yuan [2]. Regulatory Changes - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is reviewing the RKAB quotas, which are crucial for coal mining operations. The approval rate for the first batch of RKAB in 2026 was only 71.49%, with significant reductions in approved quotas for many companies [6][7]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic market obligation (DMO) will be adjusted to ensure local demand is met before allowing coal exports. The DMO demand is expected to remain above 250 million tons [7]. - The report predicts that Indonesia's coal exports will face substantial declines starting in Q2 2026, which will further constrain global coal supply and potentially elevate prices [7]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity stocks in the thermal coal sector, including companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company, Huayang Co., and others, as they are expected to benefit from rising coal prices [7].

摩根大通 将 兖矿能源 A股评级上调至中性。 ...

摩根大通将兖矿能源A股评级上调至中性。 ...

市场数据：2026 年 2 月 5 日 收盘价（元/股）： 15.44 年内最高/最低（元/ 股）： 流通 A 股/总股本（亿 股）： 流通 A 股市值（亿元）： 914.65 总市值（亿元）： 1,549.79 资料来源：常闻 基础数据：2025 年 9 月 30 日 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码：S0760519110005 邮箱：chengjunjie@sxzq.com 动力煤 兖矿能源（600188.SH） 买入-A(维持) 印尼煤出口暂停催化海外煤价，公司海外业务有望受益 2026 年 2 月 6 日 公司研究/公司快报 事件描述 2 月 3 日据财联社报道，印尼矿业官员表示，由于印尼政府提出大幅减 产计划，该国矿商已暂停现货煤炭出口。印尼主要行业协会反对此举，警告 称可能引发裁员和矿山关闭。 事件点评 | 基本每股收益(元/股)： | 0.71 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元/股)： | 0.71 | | 每股净资产(元/股)： | 14.24 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 7.80 | | 资 ...

市场数据：2026 年 2 月 5 日 收盘价（元/股）： 15.44 年内最高/最低（元/ 股）： 流通 A 股/总股本（亿 股）： 流通 A 股市值（亿元）： 914.65 总市值（亿元）： 1,549.79 资料来源：常闻 基础数据：2025 年 9 月 30 日 | 基本每股收益(元/股)： | 0.71 | | --- | --- | | 摊薄每股收益(元/股)： | 0.71 | | 每股净资产(元/股)： | 14.24 | | 净资产收益率(%)： | 7.80 | | 资料来源：常闻 | | 分析师： 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码：S0760519110005 邮箱：chengjunjie@sxzq.com 动力煤 兖矿能源（600188.SH） 买入-A(维持) 印尼煤出口暂停催化海外煤价，公司海外业务有望受益 2026 年 2 月 6 日 公司研究/公司快报 事件描述 2 月 3 日据财联社报道，印尼矿业官员表示，由于印尼政府提出大幅减 产计划，该国矿商已暂停现货煤炭出口。印尼主要行业协会反对此举，警告 称可能 ...

国盛证券发布研报称，印尼政府计划在2026年通过一套"组合拳"政策，在煤炭价格下行周期中主动调控 供给以支撑煤价。印尼作为全球最大的煤炭出口国，其主动大幅减产将成为扭转市场平衡的关键力量。 此举将直接削减国际市场货源，有助于消化全球高企的库存，并可能催化煤炭价格快速反弹。此外，在 主产国供应收紧预期下，市场信心亦有望得到提振，有望对国际煤炭价格提供有力支撑，明显改善主要 煤炭企业盈利水平。 国盛证券主要观点如下： 印尼：25年产量下降约5.5%，苏岛产量占15.3% 2025年印尼煤炭产量预计为7.9亿吨，低于2024年的8.36亿吨，同比下降约5.5%。2025年南苏门答腊煤 炭产量1.2074亿吨，占比约15.3%。苏门答腊岛部分矿区地处偏远，缺乏深水港口，煤炭外运依赖成本 较高的公路或河运，物流瓶颈突出。南苏门答腊省政府已颁布政令，自2026年1月起禁止所有运煤卡车 在公共道路上行驶，预计将导致年产能减少约1000万吨。 苏门答腊岛煤炭产区在产量贡献、生产条件和成本控制上均处于劣势。主动引导其高成本、低效率的产 能有序优化，是推动印尼煤炭行业高质量发展的理性选择。 印尼：全球第一大煤炭出口国，25年出口 ...

煤炭 行业事件点评 领先大市-A(上调) 2026 年 2 月 6 日 行业研究/行业分析 【山证煤炭】弱法币致实物定价权提升， 关注短期事件驱动影响-【山证煤炭】行 业周报（20260126-20260201） 2026.2.3 【山证煤炭】2025 年四季度煤炭债复盘： 财务表现仍有改善空间，供应链风险可 控 2026.1.27 胡博 执业登记编码：S0760522090003 邮箱：hubo1@sxzq.com 程俊杰 执业登记编码：S0760519110005 邮箱：chengjunjie@sxzq.com 印尼矿商暂停现货出口，减产落地超市场预期 分析师： 投资建议：考虑海外煤价或将受催化，有望提振国内煤价预期，上调行 业评级。若海外煤价加速上涨，利好海外业务占比较高的【兖矿能源】。此 外，【潞安环能】、【山西焦煤】、【晋控煤业】、【山煤国际】等弹性品种也将 受益。 风险提示：印尼煤炭减产不及预期，印尼煤炭矿商恢复出口，海外价格上涨 不及预期。 请务必阅读最后股票评级说明和免责声明 1 煤炭板块近一年市场表现 资料来源：常闻 行业研究/行业分析 投资要点： 事件：2 月 3 日据财联社报道，印尼矿业 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for several companies directly benefiting from Indonesian coal resources, including China Qinfa, Power Development, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and others [11]. Core Insights - Indonesia's coal production is expected to decline by approximately 5.5% in 2025, with production estimated at 790 million tons, down from 836 million tons in 2024 [1][14]. - As the world's largest coal exporter, Indonesia's coal exports are projected to decrease by about 5.0% in 2025, with total exports expected to reach 505 million tons [2][20]. - The report highlights significant declines in coal export revenue and tax contributions, leading to increased fiscal pressure on the Indonesian government [3][28]. - Domestic coal demand is expected to grow robustly, driven by population growth and increasing electricity needs [31]. - The Indonesian government plans to implement a series of policies to tighten coal production quotas, increase export taxes, and enhance domestic market obligations (DMO) to support coal prices and increase tax revenue [4][36]. Summary by Sections Coal Production and Export Trends - In 2025, Indonesia's coal production is projected to be 790 million tons, a decrease of 5.5% from 2024 [1][14]. - The coal export volume for 2025 is expected to be 505 million tons, reflecting a 5.0% decline compared to the previous year [2][20]. - The export revenue for coal (excluding lignite) in the first eleven months of 2025 is reported at $22.17 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.27% [28]. Domestic Demand and Policy Changes - The IEA forecasts that Indonesia's coal consumption will reach approximately 266 million tons in 2025, primarily due to population growth and economic expansion [31]. - The Indonesian government is set to implement a "combination policy" to manage coal supply actively, which includes tightening production quotas and increasing export taxes [4][36]. Regulatory and Taxation Framework - New regulations will impose a progressive export tax ranging from 1% to 11%, depending on coal type and price, effective from 2026 [9][44]. - The introduction of stricter mining rights taxes linked to coal quality and production methods is expected to raise operational costs for coal producers [45]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes investment in companies that are well-positioned to benefit from the changes in the Indonesian coal market, particularly those with strong domestic market presence and resilience to price fluctuations [11].

2025年印尼煤炭产量7.9亿吨，同比下降5%，已经较年初给予配额的9.17亿要明显下降，2026年印尼可 能大幅下调产量配额至6亿吨，较2025年产量下降24%，反应出印尼政府转变包括镍、煤炭在内资源品 出口策略，控量提价。 全球煤炭供需平衡可能在26年开始被打破，供给收缩需求抬升，看好上升周期 2025年印尼出口煤炭5.24亿吨，同比下降6.1%，是全球第一大动力煤出口国。如果按照26年产量6亿， 满足国内需求25%后，出口量最多只有4.5亿，较25年下降约0.74亿吨，占25年全球海运贸易额约5%， 加速全球煤炭供给收缩。除印尼外，澳洲26H2开始也有超过5%的产能因采矿证到期要开始退出；俄罗 斯产量缺乏资本开支支撑进入自然下滑趋势，同时美国5000万吨动力煤出口可能逐步全面转自用，全球 煤炭紧平衡将逐步兑现，看好煤价后续全球的上升周期。 国泰海通发布研报称，印尼出口政策调整，大幅削减产量配额反应出印尼政府转变包括镍、煤炭在内资 源品出口策略，控量提价。除印尼外，澳洲26H2开始也有超过5%的产能因采矿证到期要开始退出；俄 罗斯产量缺乏资本开支支撑进入自然下滑趋势，同时美国5000万吨动力煤出口可能逐步 ...