Hisense V.T.(600060) 国金证券·2024-11-21 02:35Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Hisense Visual Technology (600060.SH) with a target price of 29.10 RMB, indicating a potential upside from the current market price of 21.20 RMB [2][5]. Core Insights - The investment logic highlights a rebound in domestic black electrical appliance demand driven by the "old-for-new" policy, alongside accelerated brand expansion of domestic manufacturers in overseas markets. The domestic market has shown significant improvement in consumer sentiment due to national subsidy policies, with online and offline sales of televisions increasing by 78% and 49% year-on-year respectively since September [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that the profitability of the industry is expected to improve due to a combination of falling panel prices and an enhanced product mix. Since Q2 2023, panel manufacturers have been controlling production, leading to a price increase. However, as demand stabilizes, panel prices are expected to level off, which may benefit the profitability of black electrical appliance manufacturers [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Market - The domestic market for black electrical appliances is recovering, with leading brands gaining market share. The "old-for-new" policy has significantly boosted sales, with online and offline sales showing substantial year-on-year growth [11][12]. - Hisense has strengthened its Mini LED product lineup through its Vidda brand, launching competitive products that align with subsidy policies, thus positioning itself to benefit from the current market dynamics [14][15]. 2. Overseas Market - The trend of "national brands advancing while Korean brands retreating" is evident, with Hisense and TCL increasing their global market share from 15.1% to 21.1% since 2018, while Samsung and LG's combined share has decreased from 34.4% to 30.9% [12][13]. - Hisense's global television market share has grown from 5.5% in 2015 to 11.0% in 2023, supported by local R&D centers and manufacturing bases in key overseas markets [16][17]. 3. Profitability Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts Hisense's revenue to reach 587.8 billion RMB in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 9.6%. The net profit is expected to be 20.0 billion RMB, reflecting a slight decline of 4.5% year-on-year, but with a recovery projected in subsequent years [4][8]. - The report anticipates that Hisense will maintain a competitive edge through vertical supply chain integration and proprietary technology, with a projected PE ratio of 16.0x by 2025 [4][19].