ZHONGSHENGYAOYE(002317) 民生证券·2024-11-21 03:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Insights - The company has announced positive results from the Phase II clinical trial of its innovative drug RAY1225, which shows a higher weight loss achievement rate compared to Tirzepatide [1]. - RAY1225 demonstrates dual agonist activity on GLP-1 and GIP receptors, with ongoing studies indicating promising results for both overweight patients and those with type 2 diabetes [1]. - The company expects revenue growth from 2.732 billion CNY in 2024 to 3.608 billion CNY in 2026, with net profit projected to increase from 244 million CNY to 431 million CNY during the same period [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 2,732 million CNY, 3,121 million CNY, and 3,608 million CNY respectively, reflecting growth rates of 4.7%, 14.2%, and 15.6% [2][6]. - Net profit estimates for the same years are 244 million CNY, 362 million CNY, and 431 million CNY, with growth rates of -7.5%, 48.8%, and 19.0% respectively [2][6]. - The report anticipates earnings per share to rise from 0.29 CNY in 2024 to 0.51 CNY in 2026, with corresponding PE ratios of 47, 32, and 27 [2][6]. Clinical Trial Results - In the REBUILDING-1 study, the lower dose group of RAY1225 showed a weight loss of -10.06% for the 3mg group and -12.97% for the 6mg group, significantly outperforming the placebo group which had a weight loss of -3.62% [1]. - The percentage of participants achieving a weight loss of ≥5% was 73.2% for the 3mg group and 95.1% for the 6mg group, while those achieving ≥10% weight loss were 51.2% and 75.6% respectively [1]. Safety and Tolerability - The overall safety and tolerability of RAY1225 are reported to be good, with no new safety signals identified. The most common adverse events were gastrointestinal, mostly mild and transient [1].