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小鹏汽车-W:2024Q3毛利率超预期 经营周期拐点确立

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 24.76 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.5%. In Q3 2024, revenue reached 10.1 billion yuan, up 18.4% year-on-year and 24.5% quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The automotive business gross margin for Q3 2024 was 8.6%, an increase of 14.7 percentage points year-on-year and 2.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, indicating improved operational quality [2][3]. - The company is expected to achieve vehicle sales of 87,000 to 91,000 units in Q4 2024, which corresponds to a year-on-year growth of 44.6% to 51.3% [3]. Revenue Summary - Q3 2024 revenue was 10.1 billion yuan, with automotive revenue at 8.8 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.1% [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) decreased from 225,700 yuan in Q2 2024 to 189,000 yuan in Q3 2024 [2]. - Other business revenue reached 1.31 billion yuan in Q3 2024, up 90.7% year-on-year [2]. Profitability Summary - In Q3 2024, the automotive business gross profit was 760 million yuan, with a gross margin of 8.6% [2][3]. - Total gross profit for Q3 2024 was 1.54 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 15.3%, an increase of 17.9 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Expense Summary - R&D expenses for Q3 2024 were 1.63 billion yuan, up 25.1% year-on-year [3]. - Selling and administrative expenses were 1.63 billion yuan, down 3.5% year-on-year [3]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a revenue range of 15.3 billion to 16.2 billion yuan for Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.2% to 24.1% [3]. - The report highlights the launch of new models and a strong product cycle, with expectations for significant sales growth [6][7].