ZHONGSHENGYAOYE(SZ:002317) Minsheng Securities·2024-11-21 03:35Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company has announced positive results from the Phase II clinical trial of its innovative drug RAY1225, which shows a higher weight loss achievement rate compared to Tirzepatide. The drug is currently being tested for overweight/obese patients and those with type 2 diabetes [1]. - The report anticipates that the company will achieve revenue of 2.732 billion, 3.121 billion, and 3.608 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with net profits of 244 million, 362 million, and 431 million CNY for the same years [2][6]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 2,611 million CNY, with a growth rate of -2.5%. Expected revenue growth rates for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 4.7%, 14.2%, and 15.6% respectively [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 263 million CNY in 2023, decreasing to 244 million CNY in 2024, but then increasing to 362 million CNY in 2025 and 431 million CNY in 2026, reflecting growth rates of -18.3%, -7.5%, 48.8%, and 19.0% respectively [2][6]. - The report indicates that the company's PE ratio will be 47, 32, and 27 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2][6]. Safety and Efficacy - RAY1225 has shown good safety and tolerability, with gastrointestinal adverse events being the most common but mostly mild and transient. The incidence of gastrointestinal adverse events in the 6mg group was lower than that reported for Tirzepatide [1].