Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for QFIN US and 3660 HK with target prices of 450 million for 2025, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [3]. - Loan quality has stabilized, with a decrease in overdue rates and an increase in loan disbursement volume, suggesting a potential return to normal operational strategies [3][5]. Financial Performance - In 3Q24, the loan disbursement volume was RMB 82.4 billion, marking a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 14.9%. The loan balance was RMB 127.7 billion, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.4% [4]. - The net take rate improved to 12.2% in 3Q24, up from 10.2% in 2Q24, driven by lower funding costs and the cessation of low-margin businesses [4]. - The company expects to achieve its net profit guidance of RMB 1.75-1.85 billion for 3Q24, supported by macroeconomic stabilization and prudent operational management [5]. Earnings Forecast - The report adjusts the forecast for attributable net profit for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to RMB 6.15 billion, RMB 6.34 billion, and RMB 6.62 billion respectively, reflecting an increase of 13.7% for 2024 [6]. - Target prices for QFIN US and 3660 HK have been raised to $37.20 and HKD 143.40 based on PE and DCF valuation methods [6][19]. Valuation Methodology - The target price is derived from a combination of DCF and PE valuation methods, with the PE valuation based on an average of 6x for 2025 [19][20]. - The DCF analysis incorporates a three-stage model, projecting net profits and capital returns over the next several years [20][21]. Key Financial Metrics - The report provides a detailed breakdown of financial metrics, including projected revenues, net profits, EPS, PE ratios, and ROE for the years 2022 to 2026 [27]. - For 2024, the projected EPS is RMB 42.39, with a PE ratio of 5.53, indicating a favorable valuation compared to historical performance [27].
奇富科技-S：3Q24利润再超预期，宣布新回购计划