嘉友国际：深度报告：矿产物流出海，还看今朝

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for the company, with a target price of 20.79 RMB [5] Core Views - The company is a pioneer in cross-border multimodal logistics, focusing on landlocked countries along the "Belt and Road" initiative, with operations spanning over 60 countries and regions [3] - The company's business model in Mongolia has evolved from "hub assets" to "logistics" and then to "resources," with a strong focus on coal logistics and mining resources [3] - The African market offers significant growth potential, with the company replicating its Mongolian success by building a comprehensive logistics network across sea, land, and air [3] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 9.938 billion, 12.738 billion, and 15.645 billion RMB in 2024-2026, with net profits of 1.484 billion, 1.964 billion, and 2.411 billion RMB, respectively [3] Business Overview Focus on Landlocked Countries - The company specializes in solving cross-border logistics pain points for landlocked countries, leveraging its extensive network and long-term client relationships [3] - Its business spans Asia, Africa, Europe, and North America, with a strong presence in Mongolia, Africa, and Central Asia [3] - The company has formed strong ties with major mining companies, providing logistics services for over a decade [3] Mongolia Business - The company has established a strong foothold in Mongolia, with key assets such as bonded warehouses and customs supervision facilities [3] - It has expanded into logistics services, including cross-border multimodal transport and supply chain trade, focusing on coal, copper concentrate, and mining equipment [3] - The company has also invested in mining resources, securing a strong position in the logistics chain [3] - Mongolia is a major source of coking coal for China, accounting for over 50% of China's coking coal imports in most years [3] Africa Business - The company is replicating its Mongolian model in Africa, focusing on key logistics nodes and building a comprehensive logistics network [3] - It has acquired BHL, a leading cross-border transport company in Zambia, and is expanding into low-altitude logistics [3] - The African logistics market is estimated to be worth 400-600 billion USD annually, offering significant growth opportunities [3] Central Asia Business - The company is expanding its presence in Central Asia by replicating its Mongolian strategy, focusing on key assets and cross-border logistics [3] - It has signed a railway cooperation memorandum to strengthen its logistics capabilities in the region [3] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue and profit growth from 2024 to 2026, driven by its strong presence in Mongolia and expansion in Africa [3] - Revenue is projected to grow from 9.938 billion RMB in 2024 to 15.645 billion RMB in 2026, with net profits increasing from 1.484 billion RMB to 2.411 billion RMB [3] - The PE ratio is expected to decrease from 14x in 2024 to 8x in 2026, reflecting strong earnings growth [3] Industry Analysis Mongolia-China Coal Trade - Mongolia is a major supplier of coking coal to China, with imports reaching 54 million tons in 2023, a 111% increase year-on-year [3] - The Tavan Tolgoi mine, Mongolia's largest open-pit coal mine, plays a crucial role in supplying coal to China [3] - The Ganqimaodu port is the primary entry point for Mongolian coal into China, handling over 50% of Mongolia's coal exports [3] Africa Logistics Market - The African logistics market is vast, with significant opportunities in mining logistics and infrastructure development [3] - The company is building a comprehensive logistics network in Africa, focusing on key mining regions such as the Copperbelt [3] Central Asia Logistics - Central Asia offers growth opportunities for the company, particularly in cross-border logistics and infrastructure development [3] - The company is leveraging its experience in Mongolia to expand its presence in the region [3]