Dongcheng Biochem(002675) 华源证券·2024-11-21 23:27Investment Rating - Buy (首次覆盖) [4] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure with a 16 4% YoY decline in revenue to 2 16 billion yuan and a 41 6% YoY decline in net profit to 170 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue decreased by 7 3% YoY to 740 million yuan, and net profit dropped by 45 7% YoY to 55 million yuan [1] - The company's nuclear medicine product pipeline is continuously expanding, opening up long-term growth potential [4] Business Performance - API segment revenue decreased by 28 73% YoY to 960 million yuan due to a decline in heparin sodium prices [4] - Nuclear medicine segment: FDG injection revenue decreased by 1 33% YoY to 312 million yuan, while technetium-labeled drug revenue increased by 4 26% YoY to 81 79 million yuan due to market expansion [4] - Formulation segment: Nadroparin injection revenue surged by 130 76% YoY to 110 million yuan [4] - Yunke injection revenue decreased by 3 65% YoY to 185 million yuan, mainly due to reduced hospital admissions influenced by DRG and DIP policies [4] Nuclear Medicine Pipeline - The company has a rich portfolio of nuclear medicine products, including diagnostic PET drugs (18F-FDG), SPECT drugs (technetium-labeled drugs), and other drugs like urea [14C] capsules [4] - The company is developing a radioactive theranostic drug innovation platform, Yantai Lannacheng, which focuses on advanced nanodelivery technologies and targets cancers such as prostate, gastric, colorectal, and nasopharyngeal cancers [4] - Key products in development: Fluorine [18F] Sireptide Injection (Phase III), Fluorine [18F] Fibrostatin Injection (completed Phase I), 177Lu-LNC1004 Injection (Phase I in China and Singapore), and others with clinical trial approvals in China and the US [4] Financial Forecasts - Expected net profit for 2024-2026: 220 million yuan, 290 million yuan, and 360 million yuan, with YoY growth rates of 4 2%, 31 6%, and 26 2%, respectively [5] - Current P/E ratios: 51x (2024), 39x (2025), and 31x (2026) [5] - Revenue growth rates: -10 54% (2024), 12 35% (2025), and 12 78% (2026) [5] - ROE: 4 49% (2024), 5 75% (2025), and 7 04% (2026) [5] Valuation Metrics - P/E: 50 69x (2024), 38 51x (2025), 30 52x (2026) [5] - P/S: 3 78x (2024), 3 36x (2025), 2 98x (2026) [5] - P/B: 2 27x (2024), 2 22x (2025), 2 15x (2026) [5] - Dividend yield: 1 11% (2024), 1 46% (2025), 1 84% (2026) [5]