贝壳：在第四季度乘着政策顺风

Investment Rating - Maintains a Buy rating with a target price raised to USD 23.3 (previously USD 21.5), reflecting a 15.2% upside from the current price of USD 20.23 [1][5] Core Views - Revenue Growth: Q3 2024 revenue increased by 27% YoY to RMB 22.6 billion, slightly below Bloomberg consensus and CICC estimates by 1.5% and 4.7%, respectively, due to weak existing home transaction (EHT) sentiment [1] - Non-GAAP Net Income: Q3 2024 non-GAAP net income was RMB 1.8 billion, with a gross margin of 7.9%, in line with expectations, driven by cost control measures [1] - Market Share Expansion: Continued market share gains in both existing home transactions (EHT) and new home transactions (NHT), along with successful new business expansion, support a positive outlook [1] - Q4 2024 Outlook: EHT and NHT gross transaction value (GTV) are expected to grow over 40% YoY, supported by strong performance in October and November, though additional expenses of RMB 1-1.5 billion may reduce Q4 non-GAAP net income to RMB 220 million [2] Business Performance - EHT Performance: EHT GTV grew 9% YoY but declined 17% QoQ due to slowing transaction sentiment post-June peak, with contribution margin dropping 7 percentage points to 41% due to increased fixed costs from agent expansion [2] - NHT Performance: NHT GTV grew 18.5% YoY, significantly outperforming the industry's 19% decline, driven by partnerships with state-owned developers [2] - Policy Impact: Policy Package 924 and subsequent measures have significantly boosted transaction sentiment, with better sustainability compared to previous policy supports [2] Financial Projections - Revenue Growth: FY2024E revenue is projected at RMB 91.0 billion, growing 17.1% YoY, with FY2025E and FY2026E revenues expected at RMB 107.7 billion (+18.3% YoY) and RMB 121.8 billion (+13.0% YoY), respectively [4] - Non-GAAP Net Profit: FY2024E non-GAAP net profit is estimated at RMB 8.1 billion, with FY2025E and FY2026E projections of RMB 9.4 billion (+16.7% YoY) and RMB 10.9 billion (+16.0% YoY), respectively [4] - Valuation Metrics: The target price implies a 2025E non-GAAP P/E of 21.4x, with core business valued at USD 22.3 per ADS and Shengdu at USD 0.9 per ADS [1][10] Corporate Social Responsibility - Employee Welfare: Plans to invest RMB 1.2 billion over the next 3-4 years in employee welfare, including transitioning to fixed salary structures and providing social insurance for brokers, enhancing long-term value [3] Valuation Summary - DCF Valuation: The discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation for the core business is RMB 193.7 billion, with a total enterprise value of RMB 201.7 billion, translating to a valuation of USD 23.3 per ADS [9][10] - SOTP Valuation: The sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation includes RMB 193.7 billion for the core business and RMB 8.0 billion for Shengdu, resulting in a total valuation of RMB 201.7 billion (USD 28.0 billion) [10]