Eastern Air Logistics (601156) 国信证券·2024-11-22 08:54Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4]. Core Insights - Eastern Airlines Logistics is a leader in China's air freight industry, with a market share of nearly 20%. The company has a competitive advantage due to its fleet of 14 B777 freighters and a strong international route network [1][21]. - The demand for international air freight is expected to grow significantly in 2024, driven by the rapid development of cross-border e-commerce platforms like SHEIN and TEMU, as well as a recovery in global manufacturing [1][28]. - The company's three main business segments—air express, ground services, and integrated logistics solutions—are expected to contribute to its growth, with the integrated logistics segment showing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 36% from 2018 to 2023 [1][32]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Eastern Airlines Logistics has been deeply involved in the air logistics industry for 20 years and became the first publicly listed air logistics company in China in 2021. The company has undergone significant structural changes, including a mixed-ownership reform [21][28]. Industry Trends - The international air freight market in China is characterized by a tight supply-demand balance, with freight rates expected to rise steadily. The company benefits from a concentrated competitive landscape and the booming cross-border e-commerce sector [1][28]. Business Segments - The air express business is highly sensitive to freight rate fluctuations, while the ground services segment provides stable revenue and high margins. The integrated logistics solutions segment is positioned for strong growth due to the increasing demand for comprehensive logistics services [32][33]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 3.05 billion, 3.54 billion, and 4.12 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 23%, 16%, and 16% [2][4]. The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 1.92, 2.23, and 2.59 yuan [2]. Valuation - The report estimates a reasonable valuation range for the company's stock at 19.20 to 21.20 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 16% to 28% from the current price [4][2]. The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 9, 7, and 6 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [2].