华兰生物：贝伐珠单抗终获批，单抗业务新突破

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the company, citing the rapid growth of its blood products business and the breakthrough in monoclonal antibody drugs with the approval of bevacizumab [6] Core Views - The approval of bevacizumab marks a significant milestone for the company's monoclonal antibody business, achieving a zero-to-one breakthrough in its product portfolio [4] - The bevacizumab market in China is substantial, with total sales reaching 10.7 billion yuan in 2023, and the company's product is expected to enter the market rapidly through centralized procurement [5] - The company's blood products business is in a phase of rapid growth, providing a solid foundation for medium to long-term performance growth [6] Market Data - As of November 21, 2024, the company's closing price was 17.39 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 31.82 billion yuan and a circulating market capitalization of 27.35 billion yuan [2] - The stock's 3-month turnover rate was 52.3%, indicating active trading [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to be 5.01 billion yuan in 2024, 5.69 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.39 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of -6.2%, 13.6%, and 12.3% respectively [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.39 billion yuan in 2024, 1.58 billion yuan in 2025, and 1.80 billion yuan in 2026, with growth rates of -6.0%, 13.7%, and 14.0% respectively [6] - The company's P/E ratio for 2024 is estimated at 22.8x, with a P/B ratio of 2.6x [6] Product Pipeline - The company's subsidiary, Gene Company, has four other products in Phase III clinical trials: adalimumab, trastuzumab, rituximab, and denosumab [4] - Bevacizumab, a humanized anti-VEGF monoclonal antibody, is approved for the treatment of various cancers, including non-small cell lung cancer, colorectal cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma [4] Market Potential - The domestic bevacizumab market has grown rapidly, with sales in public medical institutions increasing from 970 million yuan in 2016 to 8.42 billion yuan in 2023, representing a compound annual growth rate of 36.2% [5] - As of now, 12 bevacizumab products have been approved in China, with Qilu Pharmaceutical, Roche, and Innovent Biologics leading the market share in domestic medical institutions [5]