Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [3][5][7]. Core Insights - The company has increased merchant commission reductions, which may pressure future profits due to competitive impacts [3][10]. - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 99.4 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 44%, with advertising revenue at 49 billion yuan (up 29% YoY) and payment channel revenue at 50 billion yuan (up 72% YoY) [3][10]. - The company launched a "100 billion yuan fee reduction plan" covering all product categories, aiming to reduce fees by over 10 billion yuan in the coming year [3][10]. Financial Performance - The non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 27.5 billion yuan, a 61% increase YoY, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 28% [4][11]. - The gross margin for the quarter was 60%, down 1 percentage point YoY, primarily due to the company absorbing shipping costs in the western regions and a decline in the proportion of high-margin commissions [4][11]. - The company expects an overseas business loss of 2.6 billion yuan for the quarter [4][11]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 have been adjusted to 390.9 billion yuan, 497.8 billion yuan, and 577 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 6.8%, 2.7%, and 2.6% respectively [5][17]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 119 billion yuan, 128.8 billion yuan, and 147.7 billion yuan, with adjustments of -2%, -9%, and -9% respectively [5][17]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set between 136 and 150 USD, indicating an upside potential of 31% to 44% from the current price of 104.09 USD [5][7].
拼多多：2024Q3财报点评：公司加大商户佣金减免，受竞争影响未来利润承压