Vipshop(VIPS) 国信证券·2024-11-22 12:03Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][6][17]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 was 20.7 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 9.2%, primarily due to weak demand and intensified competition [2][9]. - Product revenue was 18.9 billion RMB, down 10.2% year-over-year, with the wearables category showing negative growth [2][9]. - Other revenue increased by 4% year-over-year to 1.8 billion RMB, driven mainly by the Shanshan Outlet stores [2][9]. - The management has guided for Q4 2024 revenue growth to be in the range of -10% to -5%, with expectations of continued weak consumer trends into 2025 [2][9]. - The company's GMV remained flat year-over-year at 40.1 billion RMB, with active buyers decreasing by 7% to 39.6 million [2][9]. - The SuperVIP membership segment grew by 11% year-over-year, accounting for 49% of the company's online transaction value [2][9]. Financial Performance - Non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 1.3 billion RMB, down 29% year-over-year, with a net profit margin decreasing from 8.1% to 6.3% [3][10]. - Adjusted operating profit fell by 18% year-over-year, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 8.2% [3][10]. - The management announced a stock buyback of 275 million USD in Q3, with an additional 553 million USD remaining in the current buyback plan [3][10]. Financial Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to 107.4 billion, 107.9 billion, and 114.4 billion RMB, reflecting adjustments of -1.4%, -4.2%, and -4.3% respectively [4][17]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are set at 8.6 billion, 8.6 billion, and 9.0 billion RMB, with adjustments of -4.0%, -11.1%, and -12.9% respectively [4][17]. - The company's stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 6 for 2024, with a target price maintained at 14-15 USD, indicating an upside potential of 6%-14% [4][17].