大华股份：业务发展稳健，强化大模型落地

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "增持" (Overweight) rating to the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [5] Core Views - The company's business development remains stable, with overseas market demand continuing to grow [4] - Domestic G-end business has stabilized, with emergency and transportation digital upgrade sectors showing strong growth [4] - Overseas business remains robust, driven by infrastructure demand in BRICS and Belt and Road countries [4] - The company expects overall revenue to maintain positive growth in Q4 2024 [4] - Gross margin is expected to stabilize and gradually increase starting from Q4 2024, with further improvement anticipated in 2025 [4] - The company is strengthening the application of large models and deepening cooperation with China Mobile, with 12 standardized scenario solutions already developed [5] Financial Performance - 2024Q1-Q3 revenue reached 22.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.77% [4] - 2024Q1-Q3 net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.545 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.74% [4] - 2024Q3 revenue was 7.583 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.80%, while net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 19.75% to 735 million yuan [4] - Gross margin for 2024Q1-Q3 was 40.81%, a year-on-year decrease of 1.84 percentage points [4] - Net profit margin for 2024Q1-Q3 was 11.58%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.57 percentage points [4] - The company forecasts net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.183 billion yuan, 3.582 billion yuan, and 4.037 billion yuan for 2024-2026, respectively [5] Strategic Developments - The company is implementing its "Dahua Think 2.0" strategy, focusing on AI large models and multi-dimensional perception technologies [5] - Significant progress has been made in energy and intelligent manufacturing sectors [5] - The company is deepening cooperation with China Mobile, particularly in IoT platform construction [5] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from 33.157 billion yuan in 2024E to 38.652 billion yuan in 2026E, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.9%, 8.2%, and 7.7%, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to grow from 3.183 billion yuan in 2024E to 4.037 billion yuan in 2026E, with year-on-year growth rates of -56.8%, 12.5%, and 12.7%, respectively [3] - Gross margin is forecasted to remain stable at around 40.7%-41.6% from 2024E to 2026E [3] - ROE is expected to gradually increase from 8.8% in 2024E to 9.6% in 2026E [3] - EPS is projected to grow from 0.97 yuan in 2024E to 1.23 yuan in 2026E [3]