Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD NASDAQ) [2] Core Viewpoints - Pinduoduo's Q3 2024 performance fell short of expectations due to slower monetization rate growth in the domestic market and adjustments in commission policies [3] - Revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 99 4 billion, up 44% YoY but below Bloomberg consensus of RMB 102 8 billion [3] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 27 5 billion, up 61% YoY but below Bloomberg consensus of RMB 29 2 billion [3] - The company's future valuation recovery depends on the accelerated profitability improvement of TEMU [2] Financial Performance - Online marketing revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 49 4 billion, up 24% YoY, with GMV growth and monetization rate potentially slowing due to intense domestic e-commerce competition [3] - Transaction revenue for Q3 2024 was RMB 50 billion, up 72% YoY, with slower growth attributed to domestic competition and reduced service fees [3] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 60%, down 1 0pct YoY and 5 3pct QoQ, influenced by the rising proportion of TEMU revenue [3] - Marketing expense ratio for Q3 2024 was 30 7%, down 0 9pct YoY but up 3 9pct QoQ, reflecting increased investment in specific categories to maintain price advantages [3] Future Outlook - Short-term profit fluctuations are expected due to intensified domestic competition and increased overseas uncertainties [4] - Long-term growth potential remains, with user loyalty and low-price offerings providing a competitive edge, though domestic GMV growth may align with industry averages [4] - TEMU's semi-hosted model expansion is expected to significantly reduce losses [4] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 400 813 billion, with a YoY growth of 61 9% [6] - Non-GAAP net profit for 2024E is projected at RMB 115 639 billion, with a YoY growth of 70 3% [6] - Gross margin for 2024E is expected to be 62 0%, with net margin at 28 9% [6] - EPS for 2024E is projected at RMB 21 8, with a P/E ratio of 9 1x [6] Valuation - Current stock price is USD 104 09, with a market cap of USD 144 555 billion [2] - The stock's 2024-2026 P/E ratios are projected at 9 1x, 7 0x, and 5 4x respectively [2]
拼多多：美股公司信息更新报告：2024Q3业绩不及预期，未来有赖TEMU盈利改善