KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 华鑫证券·2024-11-24 02:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519 SH) [3] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai is a leading player in the high-end liquor market, with a dominant position in the industry [4] - The high-end liquor market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12% from 2021 to 2026, reaching RMB 166.4 billion by 2026 [5] - Moutai's brand strength, product quality, and pricing strategy have solidified its position as a market leader [6] Company Overview - Kweichow Moutai was listed in 2001 and has since become a benchmark in the liquor industry [4] - The company has a total market capitalization of RMB 1.89 trillion, with a current stock price of RMB 1,507.82 [3] - Moutai has a strong track record of cash dividends, with cumulative cash dividends reaching RMB 271.44 billion by H1 2024, 136 times the funds raised during its IPO [4] Industry Analysis - The overall liquor market size in 2023 was approximately RMB 648.8 billion, with a CAGR of 2.3% from 2017 to 2023 [5] - The high-end liquor segment has seen its market share increase from 9% in 2017 to 16% in 2021, and is expected to reach 22% by 2026 [5] - The high-end liquor market is dominated by Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guojiao 1573, with Moutai holding a 57% market share [62] Brand and Product Strategy - Moutai's brand is built on its historical heritage and international recognition, with numerous awards both domestically and internationally [6] - The company's product portfolio includes the flagship Feitian Moutai and the emerging Moutai 1935, which has become a RMB 10 billion product [6] - Moutai's pricing strategy is well-calibrated, with periodic price increases that have been effectively absorbed by the market [113][114] Financial Performance - Moutai's revenue has grown from RMB 6.3 billion in 1998 to RMB 1.51 trillion in 2023, with a 25-year CAGR of 24.5% [25] - Net profit attributable to shareholders has increased from RMB 150 million in 1998 to RMB 74.73 billion in 2023, with a 25-year CAGR of 28.3% [28] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 68.28, RMB 73.38, and RMB 79.71, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22x, 21x, and 19x [7] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - Moutai, Wuliangye, and Guojiao 1573 collectively account for over 90% of the high-end liquor market, with Moutai leading the pack [5] - The high-end liquor market is characterized by high barriers to entry, primarily due to brand strength, which translates into high profitability and stability [63] - Moutai's competitive advantage is further reinforced by its strong brand equity, which allows it to command premium pricing and maintain market leadership [63] Future Outlook - The high-end liquor market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, driven by increasing consumer demand for premium products [5] - Moutai is well-positioned to capitalize on this growth, given its strong brand, product portfolio, and pricing power [6] - The company's focus on expanding its overseas market presence is expected to further enhance its global brand recognition and market share [6]