Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD) [4] Core Insights - In Q3 2024, Pinduoduo achieved revenue of 99.35 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 44.3%, but fell short of consensus expectations by 3.4% due to lower-than-expected transaction service revenue [1] - Non-GAAP net profit reached 27.46 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 61.3%, but also below consensus expectations by 6.0% [1] - The report forecasts revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 to be 393.4 billion yuan, 500.8 billion yuan, and 606.2 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding Non-GAAP net profits of 115.8 billion yuan, 144.2 billion yuan, and 171.8 billion yuan [2][4] Revenue and Profitability Analysis - Q3 2024 online marketing revenue was 49.35 billion yuan, up 24.3% year-over-year, exceeding consensus expectations by 0.7% [1] - Transaction service revenue was 50.0 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 71.5%, but fell short of expectations by 5.7% due to unexpected supply-side support measures [1] - Gross profit for Q3 2024 was 59.65 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 60.0%, which was below consensus expectations by 2.1 percentage points [1] Cost and Expense Overview - Operating costs and sales expenses exceeded expectations, leading to a significant decline in net profit margin [1] - Sales expenses were 30.48 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 40.2%, higher than consensus expectations by 1.0% [1] - Management expenses were 1.81 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 138.1%, slightly below expectations [1] Financial Projections - The report projects a Non-GAAP EPS of 12.21, 20.85, and 26.10 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.0, 7.2, and 6.1 [2][4] - The expected growth rates for revenue and Non-GAAP net profit are 58.88% and 70.75% for 2024, respectively [12]
拼多多Q3业绩点评报告：主站持续提升市场份额，百亿减免下利润承压