Company Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Alibaba Pictures (01060 HK) with a current price of 0 41 HKD and a fair value of 0 65 HKD [1][2][3] Core Views - Alibaba Pictures reported FY25H1 revenue of 3 051 billion RMB, up 16 64% YoY, with adjusted EBITA of 642 million RMB, up 39 23% YoY, driven by the consolidation of Damai since November 30, 2023 [6] - FY25H1 content business revenue declined 17 30% YoY to 1 224 billion RMB due to a weak film market, with domestic box office down 38% YoY [6] - Ticketing and tech platform revenue surged 138 60% YoY to 1 227 billion RMB, with Damai maintaining a dominant position in the live entertainment ticketing market [6] - IP derivatives and other business revenue decreased 3 42% YoY to 599 million RMB, but segment profit grew 5 83% YoY to 176 million RMB [6] Financial Forecasts - Revenue is projected to grow to 6 004 billion RMB in FY25, 7 454 billion RMB in FY26, and 8 428 billion RMB in FY27 [10] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 527 million RMB in FY25, 886 million RMB in FY26, and 1 058 billion RMB in FY27 [10] - The report values Alibaba Pictures at 20x FY26 PE, implying a fair value of 0 65 HKD per share [6] Business Segments - Content business: Revenue is forecasted at 2 484 billion RMB in FY25, 3 392 billion RMB in FY26, and 3 905 billion RMB in FY27, with segment profit margins recovering to 14% in FY26 and FY27 [13][14] - Ticketing and tech platform: Revenue is expected to reach 2 477 billion RMB in FY25, 2 811 billion RMB in FY26, and 3 084 billion RMB in FY27, with segment profit margins stable at 60% [13][15] - IP derivatives and other: Revenue is projected at 1 042 billion RMB in FY25, 1 251 billion RMB in FY26, and 1 439 billion RMB in FY27, with segment profit margins steady at 27% [13][16] Market Outlook - The domestic film market is expected to recover in FY26, with total box office (including service fees) forecasted at 45 billion RMB in FY25, 55 billion RMB in FY26, and 60 billion RMB in FY27 [20] - Alibaba Pictures has a strong pipeline of 35 films in production and 35 films in development, including major titles scheduled for release during the 2025 Spring Festival [14]
阿里影业：大麦并表增厚利润，期待春节档市场回暖