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敏华控股点评报告:外贸销量增长超预期,以旧换新有望拉动内贸改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of HK8.305billionforH1ofthefiscalyear24/25,representingayearonyearincreaseof7.088.305 billion for H1 of the fiscal year 24/25, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.08%, with a net profit of HK1.139 billion, showing a slight increase of 0.3% [2] - The gross margin improved to 39.5%, up by 0.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin increased to 13.7%, up by 1.0 percentage points, indicating a significant enhancement in profitability [2][6] - The company has a dividend payout ratio of 51.1%, with a current dividend yield of 6-7% [2] Domestic Sales - Revenue from the Chinese market was HK4.975billion,down17.24.975 billion, down 17.2% year-on-year (excluding real estate), primarily due to declining consumer confidence [3] - Offline store revenue decreased by 14.9% to HK3.487 billion, despite an increase of 280 stores to a total of 7,516, focusing on lower-tier markets and new cities [3] - Online sales fell by 21.6% to HK1.007billion,witheffortstoenhancebrandinfluencethroughlivestreamingandcollaborationswithkeyinfluencers[3]InternationalSalesRevenuefromtheNorthAmericanmarketreachedHK1.007 billion, with efforts to enhance brand influence through live streaming and collaborations with key influencers [3] International Sales - Revenue from the North American market reached HK2.154 billion, up 5.7%, with sales volume increasing by 18% despite a price drop of 10.2% [4] - Revenue from Europe and other overseas markets surged by 37.7% to HK733million,drivenbyadecreaseinrawmaterialcosts[4]ProductCategoriesRevenuefromsofasandaccessorieswasHK733 million, driven by a decrease in raw material costs [4] Product Categories - Revenue from sofas and accessories was HK5.817 billion, down 5.83%, with total sales volume of 908,000 units, a 3.0% increase year-on-year [5] - Domestic sofa revenue decreased by 15.6%, while export sales volume increased by 22.8% [5] - Revenue from bedding (entirely domestic) fell by 18.95% to HK1.209billionduetoinsufficientdomesticconsumption[5]FinancialMetricsThegrossmarginwas39.51.209 billion due to insufficient domestic consumption [5] Financial Metrics - The gross margin was 39.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, primarily due to declining raw material prices [6] - The total expense ratio decreased to 22.91%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The net profit margin improved to 13.7%, exceeding expectations [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of HK17.647 billion, HK18.698billion,andHK18.698 billion, and HK19.826 billion over the next three fiscal years, with a projected decline of 4% in the first year [7]