XINJI ENERGY(601918) Changjiang Securities·2024-11-25 01:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [9][11]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 results show a net profit of 1.824 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.096 billion yuan (-5.01%) year-on-year, while Q3 net profit reached 649 million yuan, an increase of 0.36 billion yuan (+5.86%) year-on-year and an increase of 0.70 billion yuan (+12.16%) quarter-on-quarter [2][5]. - The improvement in Q3 performance is attributed to the significant increase in electricity generation from the second phase of the Banji Power Plant [6]. - The company has substantial growth potential in coal-electricity integration, with several power plant projects expected to come online by March and June 2026, which will significantly enhance the company's coal-electricity performance [8][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, coal production was 4.52 million tons, a decrease of 0.53 million tons (-10%) year-on-year, and sales were 4.68 million tons, a decrease of 0.41 million tons (-8%) year-on-year [6][7]. - The average selling price of coal in Q3 was 558 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 3 yuan/ton (+1%) year-on-year, while the cost was 345 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan/ton (+1%) year-on-year [6]. - The gross profit per ton of coal in Q3 was 213 yuan, nearly unchanged year-on-year, but down by 9 yuan (-4%) quarter-on-quarter [6]. Electricity Generation - Q3 2024 electricity generation was 3.99 billion kWh, an increase of 0.69 billion kWh (+21%) year-on-year and an increase of 1.85 billion kWh (+86%) quarter-on-quarter [8]. - The average selling price of electricity was approximately 0.3992 yuan/kWh, a slight decrease compared to previous periods, but the increase in generation volume led to a significant improvement in electricity business performance [8]. Future Outlook - The company has ongoing projects, including the Shangrao Power Plant (2GW) and Chuzhou Power Plant (1.32GW), expected to be operational by March 2026, and the Liu'an Power Plant (1.32GW) by June 2026, which will enhance overall performance [8]. - If the Yangcun coal mine's 5 million tons capacity is approved, it will further boost the company's growth through coal-electricity synergy [8]. Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.37 billion yuan, 2.42 billion yuan, and 2.79 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8.5x, 8.3x, and 7.2x [9].