Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD.US) with a target price of 104.09 [3][5]. Core Insights - The domestic e-commerce sector is focusing on high-quality development, with a 3.2% year-on-year growth in retail sales of consumer goods in the first three quarters of 2024, and a 7.9% increase in online retail sales of physical goods [1]. - Pinduoduo is expected to continue supporting merchants through fee reductions and increased subsidies to maintain price competitiveness, which may impact short-term monetization and profit margins [1]. - The report anticipates that tariffs could negatively affect Temu, with projected global sales of $48 billion in 2024, as external factors may accelerate tariff-related risks [1]. Financial Summary - For Q3, Pinduoduo reported revenues of 99.354 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 44%, but below market expectations. Online marketing services revenue was 49.351 billion RMB, up 24% year-on-year, while transaction services revenue reached 50.003 billion RMB, up 72% year-on-year [2]. - Operating profit for the quarter was 29.292 billion RMB, with an operating margin of 24.5%, reflecting a 9 percentage point decline from the previous quarter [2]. - The company’s net profit was 24.981 billion RMB, a 61% increase year-on-year, resulting in a net margin of 25.1% [2]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecast for Pinduoduo has been adjusted to 409.1 billion RMB for 2024, 522.3 billion RMB for 2025, and 627.3 billion RMB for 2026, with corresponding operating profits of 113.3 billion RMB, 134.5 billion RMB, and 168.5 billion RMB respectively [3][4]. - The earnings per ADS are projected to be 83.0 RMB for 2024, 99.8 RMB for 2025, and 124.0 RMB for 2026 [3][4]. Market Position and Competition - The report highlights that the competition among platforms is intensifying, focusing on price competitiveness, user experience, and growth quality [1]. - Pinduoduo is expected to increase its subsidy efforts in Q4 to maintain its competitive edge in pricing [1].
拼多多：聚焦高质量发展，关税风险可能加速兑现