Investment Rating - The investment rating for Pinduoduo (PDD) is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report indicates that Pinduoduo's Q3 2024 performance was below expectations, with both revenue and profit impacted by fee reduction policies, leading to pressure on the main platform's profitability [2] - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 was 99.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 44%, but lower than Bloomberg's consensus estimate [2] - The report highlights that the online marketing services revenue was 49.4 billion yuan (up 24.3% year-on-year), while transaction services revenue reached 50 billion yuan (up 71.5% year-on-year), both of which were below expectations [2] - The introduction of various support measures for merchants, including fee reductions and refunds, is expected to increase uncertainty regarding profitability in the short term [2] - The overseas business, particularly the Temu platform, is progressing with a semi-managed model, but geopolitical factors and intensified competition are areas of concern [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, Pinduoduo's Non-GAAP net profit reached 27.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61%, but below Bloomberg's consensus estimate by 6% [2] - The report provides financial projections for the next three years, estimating revenues of 387.3 billion yuan, 471.4 billion yuan, and 545.1 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 56.4%, 21.7%, and 15.6% [4] Cost Structure - The report notes that the sales expense ratio, management expense ratio, and R&D expense ratio were recorded at 30.7%, 1.8%, and 3.1% respectively, with year-on-year changes of -0.9 percentage points, +0.7 percentage points, and -1.1 percentage points [2] Market Position - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape, particularly the impact of Amazon's low-price offerings in the mobile sector, which could affect Pinduoduo's market share [2] - The report suggests that while the overseas business is expected to improve profitability with the global rollout of the semi-managed model, the intensifying competition in the overseas e-commerce market remains a significant risk [2]
拼多多：24Q3业绩点评：业绩低于预期，费用减免政策使得主站利润承压