竞业达：智慧教育双轮驱动，AIGC报告业务落地

Investment Rating - Buy (first-time rating) [1] Core Investment Thesis - The company's core business in smart examination systems shows strong demand resilience, with first-mover advantages and technological barriers creating entry barriers [1] - The smart education and campus business is expected to grow due to low penetration rates and funding support, with AIGC-based educational analysis reports gaining traction [1] - The smart rail transit business is expected to rebound in the short term, with high visibility in 2025/2026 due to improved payment capabilities of urban rail transit customers [2] Business Segments Analysis Smart Examination Systems - Revenue contribution: 62.9% in 1H24 [1] - Core drivers: policy-driven penetration, technological upgrades, and increasing number of candidates [1] - Market capacity expected to grow until 2035 due to rising college entrance exam candidates [1] - Competitive landscape dominated by the company and Jiafa Education, with both maintaining gross margins above 50% [46] Smart Education and Campus - Revenue contribution: 24.7% in 1H24 [1] - Smart classroom penetration rate in universities was 15.3% in 2023, indicating significant growth potential [1] - Average annual IT funding per university increased to 13.18 million yuan in 2023, up 11.5% from 2021 [1] - AIGC-based educational analysis reports are being deployed, with the company launching the "StarSky Education Large Model" [1] Smart Rail Transit - Short-term performance turnaround expected due to project deliveries, with nearly 300 million yuan in orders [2] - Revenue conversion cycle is 2-3 years, with improved payment capabilities expected in 2025/2026 [2] Financial Projections - Revenue forecast: 568 million yuan in 2024, 681 million yuan in 2025, and 796 million yuan in 2026 [2] - Net profit forecast: 57 million yuan in 2024, 81 million yuan in 2025, and 114 million yuan in 2026 [2] - EPS forecast: 0.38 yuan in 2024, 0.55 yuan in 2025, and 0.77 yuan in 2026 [2] - Target price: 38.38 yuan/share based on 70x PE for 2025 [2] Competitive Landscape - The company and Jiafa Education are the main players in the smart examination systems market, with both maintaining high gross margins [46] - In the smart education and campus segment, the company's revenue surpassed Jiafa Education in 2023, with gross margins also exceeding Jiafa's [77] - AIGC-based solutions are expected to improve competitive dynamics in the smart education sector [77] Growth Drivers - Smart examination systems: driven by policy support, technological upgrades, and increasing exam candidates [1] - Smart education and campus: driven by low penetration rates, funding support, and AIGC-based solutions [1] - Smart rail transit: driven by project deliveries and improved payment capabilities [2]