Zhonggu Logistics(603565) 华创证券·2024-11-26 09:50Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommend" rating for Zhonggu Logistics (603565) for the first time [1] Core Views - The domestic container shipping industry has a strong competitive landscape and demand potential, with a CR3 of nearly 80% [2] - Zhonggu Logistics is a leading player in the domestic container shipping industry with outstanding operational capabilities [2] - The company benefits from the cyclical recovery of domestic demand, with potential for significant earnings elasticity [9] Industry Overview - The domestic container shipping industry is characterized by a stable growth in demand, with a CAGR of 6.4% from 2014 to 2023, slightly higher than GDP growth [2] - The industry is dominated by three major players, with Zhonggu Logistics holding a 22% market share [80] - Key drivers for the industry include the increasing containerization rate and the expansion of multimodal transportation [19][20][21] Company Overview - Zhonggu Logistics was founded in 2003 and went public in 2020, with a total fleet capacity of 3.68 million deadweight tons as of June 30, 2024 [8] - The company operates a comprehensive logistics network covering 25 major coastal ports and over 50 inland ports [8] - Zhonggu Logistics has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a CAGR of 48.7% in net profit from 2017 to 2022 and an ROE consistently above 15% [8] Financial Performance - The company's revenue and net profit have shown resilience despite industry pressures, with a gross margin maintained at 13%-14% in 2023 and the first three quarters of 2024 [8] - Zhonggu Logistics is expected to achieve net profits of 1.64 billion, 1.77 billion, and 1.92 billion yuan in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.78, 0.84, and 0.91 yuan [10] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, with a cash dividend ratio of 88% in 2023, corresponding to a dividend yield of 8% [10] Cyclical Recovery and Earnings Elasticity - The domestic container shipping market is expected to improve as the economy recovers, with the PDCI index increasing by 57% from September 20 to November 15, 2024 [9] - A 10% increase in the PDCI index is estimated to result in an additional 400 million yuan in revenue and 300 million yuan in net profit for Zhonggu Logistics [9] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the cyclical recovery of domestic demand, with its services closely tied to the transportation of bulk goods and finished products [9] Investment Recommendation - The report sets a one-year target price of 11.71 yuan for Zhonggu Logistics, representing a 30% upside from the current price [10] - The company is valued at 2.2 times PB for 2025, corresponding to a market capitalization of 24.6 billion yuan [10]