ORIENTAL YUHONG(002271) 浙商证券·2024-11-26 10:23Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [5][7] Core Views - The company's operating quality has significantly improved, with retail and engineering channels showing growth despite overall revenue decline [2] - The company's shift from a direct sales model to a channel sales model focusing on C-end and small B-end customers has improved profitability and cash flow [3] - The company's gross margin remains stable, with room for further optimization in expense ratios [4] - The company plans to repurchase 500 million to 1 billion yuan worth of shares, demonstrating confidence in long-term development [4] - The company's overseas expansion is accelerating, with operations established in multiple countries including Vietnam, Malaysia, and the US [2] Financial Performance - 2024 Q3 revenue was 6.48 billion yuan, down 23.84% YoY, with net profit attributable to the parent company of 334 million yuan, down 67.23% YoY [2] - 2024 Q3 gross margin was 28.92%, down 0.46 pct YoY but up 0.11 pct QoQ [4] - 2024 Q3 net profit margin was 5.15%, down 6.89 pct YoY and 2.23 pct QoQ [4] - 2024 Q3 operating cash flow was 835 million yuan, compared to -817 million yuan in the same period last year [3] - Accounts receivable at the end of Q3 2024 were 10.675 billion yuan, down 29.30% YoY [3] Channel Performance - Retail channel revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 7.8 billion yuan, showing growth against the trend [2] - Civil construction group revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 7.2 billion yuan, up approximately 9% YoY [2] - Engineering channel revenue in the first three quarters of 2024 was 10 billion yuan, also showing growth against the trend [2] - Direct sales revenue declined significantly, with real estate centralized procurement revenue down over 60% YoY [2] Future Outlook - Revenue for 2024-2026 is expected to be 29.298 billion, 31.518 billion, and 34.407 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of -10.74%, 7.58%, and 9.17% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is expected to be 1.522 billion, 2.141 billion, and 2.784 billion yuan, with YoY growth rates of -33.03%, 40.61%, and 30.04% respectively [5] - The company's PE ratio for 2024-2026 is expected to be 21.33X, 15.17X, and 11.67X respectively [5] Valuation and Ratios - Closing price: 13.33 yuan [7] - Total market capitalization: 32.476 billion yuan [7] - Total shares outstanding: 2.436 billion [7] - 2024-2026 EPS is expected to be 0.62, 0.88, and 1.14 yuan respectively [10] - 2024-2026 P/B ratio is expected to be 1.09, 1.06, and 1.00 respectively [13]