SFC(601595) 山西证券·2024-11-26 11:03Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for Shanghai Film (601595 SH) [3] Core Views - The company plans to acquire an additional 19% stake in Shangyingyuan Culture for a total consideration not exceeding RMB 49 03 million and RMB 17 51 million respectively, valuing the entire equity of Shangyingyuan at RMB 350 million [1] - Post-transaction, the company will hold 70% of Shangyingyuan, with Shanghai Animation Film Studio retaining 30% and Shanghai Film Group no longer holding direct shares [1] - Shangyingyuan's business performance has shown steady growth, with revenue and net profit doubling year-over-year in 2023 and H1 2024 [3] - The IP business of Shangyingyuan continues to demonstrate strong commercial value, with significant contributions from content renewal and new projects [3] - The company's IP business growth, film business recovery, and support from high-quality shareholder resources are expected to drive continued strong performance [4] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 795 million, a 115 9% YoY increase, with a projected slight decline of 0 2% in 2024E, followed by growth of 52 3% in 2025E and 20 7% in 2026E [5] - Net profit for 2023 was RMB 127 million, a 137 9% YoY increase, with projected growth rates of 8 9% in 2024E, 90 0% in 2025E, and 41 5% in 2026E [5] - Gross margin improved from -10 7% in 2022A to 22 8% in 2023A, with further improvements expected to 28 0% in 2024E, 35 0% in 2025E, and 39 0% in 2026E [5] - ROE increased from -20 7% in 2022A to 8 1% in 2023A, with projections of 8 3% in 2024E, 13 7% in 2025E, and 16 3% in 2026E [5] Market Data - The closing price on November 26, 2024, was RMB 29 29, with a year-to-date high/low of RMB 36 42/16 12 [2] - The company has a total market capitalization of RMB 13 128 billion, with a circulating A-share market capitalization of RMB 13 128 billion [2] - Basic EPS for the period ending September 30, 2024, was RMB 0 24, with a diluted EPS of RMB 0 24 and a net asset per share of RMB 4 20 [2] IP Business Highlights - Shangyingyuan's IP business includes the development and operation of a full chain of IP assets, with significant contributions from classic and new IPs [3] - The company's IPs, such as the Monkey King and Nezha, gained significant exposure during the 2024 Spring Festival Gala, with over 600 million views and plays [3] - New projects like "Chinese Folktales Season 2" and "Little Monster's Summer: Once Upon a Time in Langlang Mountain" are expected to be released in 2025, contributing to new content and licensing revenue [3] - The company's short video matrix, with over 5 million fans on platforms like Douyin and Kuaishou, continues to refresh classic works like "Calabash Brothers" and "Black Cat Detective," amplifying IP commercial value [3]