GWMOTOR(SH:601633) Changjiang Securities·2024-11-27 02:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Insights - The company has entered a new phase of profitability since 2021, with overseas expansion becoming a significant growth direction. The external environment and enhanced product competitiveness have positioned Chinese automotive companies, including the company, to capitalize on historical opportunities for international expansion [2][4] - The company has demonstrated strong financial performance, with a single vehicle profit reaching a historical high of 12,000 yuan in the first three quarters of 2024. The overseas revenue contribution has been increasing, accounting for 31% of total revenue in 2023 [4][36] - The company is well-positioned to lead the overseas expansion of Chinese automotive brands due to its superior product strength, deep localization efforts, and differentiated advantages in the pickup truck segment [2][5] Current Situation - The company has broken through bottlenecks and entered a new profitability phase, with overseas markets becoming a crucial growth increment. Since 2021, the company has seen a significant increase in high-priced models like the Tank, contributing to its financial stability [4][20] - The company maintains a strong position in the domestic market for pickups and off-road vehicles, with a market share of 41.51% in pickups and over 60% in the hard-core off-road segment since the launch of the Tank brand [26][32] Opportunities - The overseas expansion of Chinese automotive companies is gaining momentum, with the company showing substantial potential. The overseas sales of the company reached 280,000 units in the first eight months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 54% [5][38] - The company has a competitive edge in product offerings, with its models often outperforming local competitors in terms of price, size, power, and technology [5][6] Outstanding Features - The company adheres to a long-term strategy encompassing production, sales, research, and after-sales service, establishing a comprehensive layout for overseas markets. It has built three full-process manufacturing plants and over seven KD plants abroad, with a total overseas production capacity exceeding 460,000 vehicles per year [6][36] - The company has a significant presence in the overseas pickup market, with a market share of 56.9% in Russia, and is expanding into markets like Brazil and Mexico [6][36] Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to benefit from the upcoming new vehicle cycle in the domestic market, with significant growth anticipated for models like the Tank, Wey, and Ora. The overseas segment is projected to become a vital source of sales and profit growth [7][32] - The forecasted net profit for the company from 2024 to 2026 is estimated at 12.69 billion, 16.05 billion, and 17.95 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding A-share PE ratios of 17.9X, 14.1X, and 12.6X [7][36]