KWEICHOW MOUTAI(600519) 华鑫证券·2024-11-28 03:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Kweichow Moutai (600519 SH) [1] Core Views - Kweichow Moutai has implemented its first "interim dividend" in early November, distributing RMB 23 882 per share (tax included) and a total cash dividend of RMB 30 001 billion (tax included) Additionally, the company plans to repurchase RMB 3-6 billion worth of shares for cancellation [3] - The company is focusing on diversifying its sales channels and internationalizing its operations It has established a "T-shaped" overseas product matrix, with 53-degree and 43-degree products as the core, and plans to develop new products for overseas markets to meet local demand [4] - The company is expected to achieve EPS of RMB 68 28, RMB 73 38, and RMB 79 71 for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22x, 21x, and 19x [5] Financial Performance - The company's operating income is projected to grow from RMB 150 56 billion in 2023 to RMB 202 079 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 7 1%-18 0% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from RMB 74 734 billion in 2023 to RMB 100 126 billion in 2026, with a CAGR of 7 5%-19 2% [6] - ROE is forecasted to rise from 33 4% in 2023 to 38 3% in 2026 [6] Channel and Internationalization Strategy - The company is leveraging a diversified channel strategy, including self-operated systems (self-operated companies, i Moutai, and major clients) and social channels (distributors, supermarkets, department stores, restaurants, tobacco, and e-commerce) [4] - For internationalization, the company is building six systems: brand promotion, regulatory compliance, product, channel, pricing, and policy systems, aiming for full internationalization by 2035 [4] Market Performance - The stock price of Kweichow Moutai has shown significant volatility, with a 52-week range of RMB 1,261 to RMB 1,791 5 [1] - The company's market capitalization stands at RMB 1,908 2 billion, with a daily average trading volume of RMB 5,248 98 million [1]