Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Hold" rating for NIO Inc. with a target price of US4.84 [2][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights that NIO's Q3 2024 losses remain challenging to improve, with new brand models facing margin pressures. Despite achieving a record delivery of 61,861 vehicles, revenue was impacted by product mix changes and promotional discounts, leading to a significant decline in average revenue per vehicle [2][9]. - The report notes that while the gross margin improved by 1 percentage point to 10.7% due to cost reductions and increased deliveries, operational expenses continued to rise, resulting in a net loss of RMB 51.4 billion for the quarter [2][9]. - The report anticipates that the introduction of new brands "Ledo" and "Firefly" will require NIO to achieve higher and more stable monthly delivery targets to maintain margins, especially in a competitive market [2][9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - NIO's Q3 2024 revenue was RMB 18.7 billion, a 2.1% year-over-year decline, while the gross profit was RMB 2.0 billion, reflecting a gross margin of 10.8% [5][9]. - The report indicates that R&D expenses were RMB 3.3 billion, and selling and administrative expenses were RMB 4.1 billion, contributing to a net loss of RMB 5.1 billion for the quarter [5][9]. Delivery and Sales Forecast - The report projects a downward adjustment in delivery forecasts for 2024 to approximately 220,887 vehicles, reflecting a 4.6% decrease due to increasing competition in the domestic EV market [9][10]. - For 2025 and 2026, the delivery estimates are adjusted to 318,300 and 365,300 vehicles, respectively, indicating a 6.6% and 6.5% reduction [9][10]. Revenue and Profitability Projections - The report revises revenue forecasts for 2024 to RMB 67.8 billion, a 4.7% decrease, with further reductions of 9.6% and 14.4% for 2025 and 2026 [10][14]. - The adjusted non-GAAP net losses for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected at RMB -188.4 billion, -187.1 billion, and -178.2 billion, respectively [9][10]. Valuation - The report employs a P/S valuation method, adjusting the valuation multiple to 0.8 times the 2025 P/S, primarily due to expected sales increases from new brand launches and improving gross margins [14][10]. - The target price remains at US$4.80, consistent with the "Hold" rating [14].
蔚来：3Q24亏损仍难改善，新品牌车型毛利率面临挑战