贵州茅台：股东回报持续完善，适配供需运筹决胜

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Guizhou Moutai is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is focusing on enhancing shareholder returns through a robust cash dividend plan and share repurchase strategy, aiming for a dividend payout ratio of no less than 75% for 2024-2026 [2][4] - Guizhou Moutai is addressing supply-demand adaptation by improving consumer reach and brand service, emphasizing customer engagement and service transformation [2][3] - The company is transitioning from product export to brand globalization, with plans to establish six systems to support brand promotion and customer conversion by 2035 [3] - The company is committed to high dividend payouts and share buybacks, with a buyback plan of 3 to 6 billion yuan, marking its first buyback since listing [4] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to grow from 150,560 million yuan in 2023 to 203,550 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.5% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to increase from 74,734 million yuan in 2023 to 100,828 million yuan in 2026, reflecting a steady growth trajectory [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to rise from 59.49 yuan in 2023 to 80.26 yuan in 2026, indicating a positive outlook for profitability [1] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 25.53 in 2023 to 18.93 in 2026, suggesting potential valuation improvement [1]