XUEDA(000526) 信达证券·2024-12-01 02:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xueda Education (000526) is "Buy" [2][4]. Core Views - Xueda Education is a pioneer in personalized education, established in 2001, listed on the NYSE in 2010, and returned to A-shares in 2016. As of June 2024, it operates over 240 personalized centers across 100 cities and has actively expanded into vocational education since 2021, including secondary vocational education, higher vocational education, and vocational skills training [2][52]. Company Analysis - Xueda Education has undergone three phases: rapid expansion (2007-2015), adjustment (2016-2020), and upgrade post "Double Reduction" policy (2021-present). During the rapid expansion phase, the company provided personalized one-on-one and group classes, achieving a CAGR of 41.8% in center expansion and 59.7% in enrollment growth. Revenue experienced high growth, with gross margins around 25-30% [2][52][65]. - The adjustment phase saw a slowdown in revenue growth, with a CAGR of 5.6% from 2016 to 2019, as the company shifted some demand from one-on-one to small group classes. Gross margins were between 27-29% [2][53][99]. - Since the "Double Reduction" policy, Xueda has focused on non-academic training and vocational education, leading to a recovery in revenue growth starting in 2023, with significant improvements in gross margins [2][54][52]. Industry Analysis - The policy environment is improving, with the Ministry of Education releasing a draft regulation on off-campus training in February 2024, which is expected to accelerate the licensing process for non-academic training. The demographic trends indicate a growth in the eligible population and an increase in high school enrollment, suggesting a sustained high demand for high school subject training over the next decade [2][54]. - The market size for high school subject training is projected to reach 180.8 billion yuan in 2024, with a CAGR of 9.8% from 2024 to 2029. The non-academic training market is expected to grow to 300.2 billion yuan, with a CAGR of 3.1% during the same period [2][54]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Xueda Education is positioned as a leader in personalized extracurricular training, focusing on high school subject training and expanding into vocational education. The company is expected to benefit from the favorable policy environment and strong demand. Earnings per share are estimated to be 1.66, 2.08, and 2.54 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 26x, 21x, and 17x [2][54].