铜陵有色：米拉多二期推进，老牌铜企焕新春

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][9]. Core Viewpoints - Tongling Nonferrous Metals has developed a comprehensive integrated industrial chain over nearly 30 years, encompassing mining, smelting, processing, and comprehensive operations, which enhances its risk resistance [25][30]. - The company has seen steady improvement in profitability due to rising copper prices, with a significant increase in revenue and net profit since 2021, particularly following the consolidation of the Mirador copper mine [30][34]. - The Mirador project is expected to significantly boost performance, with the second phase projected to be operational by June 2025, potentially generating a net profit of 2.8 billion yuan annually [5][70]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group, listed in 1996, is a leading integrated copper producer in China, with a complete industrial chain and strong capital structure [25][30]. - The company operates six mines in China, with total copper reserves of 1.78 million tons, gold reserves of 95 tons, and silver reserves of 1,090 tons [51][58]. 2. Smelting and Deep Processing - The current copper smelting capacity is 1.7 million tons, with plans to increase to 2.2 million tons by 2025 [41][42]. - The profitability of smelting is driven by processing fees, by-products like sulfuric acid, and improved recovery rates, with an average gross profit of 2,200 yuan per ton from 2014 to 2023 [43][46]. 3. Mirador Project - The Mirador copper mine, acquired in August 2023, has a resource of 7.08 million tons of copper and is expected to produce approximately 200,000 tons of copper annually after the second phase is completed [5][58]. - The first phase of the Mirador project achieved production capacity in 2021, with actual output exceeding design capacity by over 30% in 2022 [62][65]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 3.432 billion, 3.676 billion, and 5.357 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 12.30X, 11.49X, and 7.88X [6][9]. - The report anticipates higher growth potential due to the upcoming expansion of the Mirador project [9][70].