MEITUAN-美团-W：第三季度业绩超预期；从更全面的角度推动盈利增长

Investment Rating - The target price for the company is HK $199.20, representing an 18.1% upside from the current price of HK$ 168.70 [10] - The investment rating is based on a DCF valuation, with the target price revised upward by 26% to HK $199.20, reflecting improved earnings forecasts and an extended valuation horizon to 2025 [25] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 93.6 billion, a 22% YoY increase, surpassing both the analyst's and Bloomberg consensus expectations [6] - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was RMB 12.8 billion, exceeding expectations by 4% and 10%, driven by better-than-expected performance in the Core Local Commerce (CLC) segment and reduced losses in new initiatives [6] - The company is focusing on operational integration within the CLC segment and expanding its food delivery (FD) business in the Middle East, which may slightly offset short-term earnings growth but supports long-term ecosystem development [6] Financial Performance Core Local Commerce (CLC) - CLC revenue and operating profit for Q3 2024 were RMB 69.4 billion and RMB 14.6 billion, respectively, growing 20% and 44% YoY, both exceeding expectations [7] - CLC operating margin improved by 3.5 percentage points to 21.0%, driven by increased delivery service revenue per order and optimized user subsidies [18] - CLC revenue and operating profit for Q4 2024 are expected to grow 18% and 44% YoY, reaching RMB 65.2 billion and RMB 11.6 billion, respectively [7] New Initiatives - New initiatives revenue in Q3 2024 grew 29% YoY to RMB 24.2 billion, with operating losses narrowing to RMB 1.0 billion, better than expected [8] - Meituan Select's operating losses narrowed to RMB 1.7 billion in Q3 2024, significantly better than the RMB 5.0 billion loss in Q3 2023 [8] - Excluding Meituan Select, other new initiatives achieved an operating profit of RMB 70 million in Q3 2024 [8] International Expansion - The company is investing in FD expansion in the Middle East, with expected operating losses of RMB 5.55 billion in Q4 2024 due to this expansion [9] - The financial impact of international FD expansion is expected to fully materialize in 2025, with higher gross transaction value (GTV) margins compared to domestic FD due to higher average order values (AOV) and delivery fees [9] Forecast and Valuation Adjustments - Revenue forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were revised upward by 0.2% and 0.4%, respectively, reflecting better-than-expected FD revenue growth [23] - Operating profit forecasts for 2024 and 2025 were raised by 14.0% and 6.2%, respectively, due to improved unit economics in the FD segment [23] - Non-IFRS net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 were increased by 5% to 9%, with the target price raised to HK$ 199.20 based on a DCF valuation [6] Valuation Methods - The DCF valuation assumes a WACC of 11.0% and a terminal growth rate of 2.5%, resulting in a target price of HK $199.20 [25] - A sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation cross-check suggests a per-share valuation of HK$ 230.0, with FD and ISHT segments valued at 20.0x and 17.0x 2025E PE, respectively [28] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2024E is projected at RMB 336.97 billion, with a YoY growth of 21.8%, while adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 45.04 billion, a 93.7% YoY increase [13] - The company's ROE is forecasted to improve to 23.0% in 2024E, up from 9.9% in 2023A [13] - The P/E ratio for 2024E is 25.5x, declining to 18.1x by 2026E, reflecting strong earnings growth [37]