CATL(300750) 第一上海证券·2024-12-02 08:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for the company with a target price of 310.4 RMB, representing an 18.83% upside from the current price [3][7] Core Views - The company's gross margin improved significantly to 31.2% in Q3 2024, driven by lower raw material costs and technological premiums from new product installations [3] - Battery shipments grew strongly, with global market share reaching 64.9% in the first 8 months of 2024 and domestic market share increasing to 45.9%, up 3.1 percentage points year-over-year [3] - The company launched a new hybrid battery "XiaoYao" with a pure electric range of over 400 km and 4C ultra-fast charging capability, which has been adopted by multiple brands including Li Auto, Avatr, and Deepal [3] - Overseas expansion is progressing steadily, with 8 factories already built or under construction in Europe, including a new remanufacturing center in Hungary expected to be completed by 2026 [3] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 360.0 billion RMB, a 19.3% year-over-year increase [3] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 131.36 billion RMB in Q3 2024, with a net profit margin of 15.6% [3] - The company's battery shipments in Q3 2024 totaled 125 GWh, including 30 GWh of energy storage batteries, a 60% year-over-year increase [3] - Revenue is forecasted to grow to 520.7 billion RMB by 2026, with net profit attributable to shareholders expected to reach 71.4 billion RMB [7] Market Position and Growth - The company continues to lead the global power battery market, with a 64.9% share in the first 8 months of 2024 [3] - Domestic market share increased to 45.9%, up 3.1 percentage points year-over-year [3] - The company expects 20% year-over-year growth in battery shipments in 2025, driven by strong domestic and international demand [3] Product Innovation - The new hybrid battery "XiaoYao" features a 400 km pure electric range and 4C ultra-fast charging, enabling a 280 km range with just 10 minutes of charging [3] - The battery incorporates lithium-sodium integration technology, allowing operation in temperatures as low as -40°C [3] - By 2025, nearly 30 hybrid models from brands including Geely, Chery, and GAC are expected to adopt the XiaoYao battery [3] Overseas Expansion - The company is accelerating its battery recycling business in Europe, with a remanufacturing center in Hungary expected to be completed by 2026 [3] - The German factory is ramping up production smoothly, aiming to achieve break-even within the year [3] - The first phase of the Hungary plant is progressing steadily, with production expected to start next year [3]