SAIC MOTOR(600104) 东方证券·2024-12-03 02:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for SAIC Motor with a target price of 20.14 CNY [2][5] Core Views - SAIC Motor's overall sales in November showed a 19.1% month-on-month (MoM) increase, reaching 478,800 units, despite a 7.1% year-on-year (YoY) decline [1] - Cumulative sales from January to November were 3.53 million units, a 19.5% YoY decrease [1] - SAIC Volkswagen's sales in November grew 10.4% YoY and 16.7% MoM, marking the first time since April that both YoY and MoM growth were achieved [1] - SAIC General Motors' sales in November increased 55.1% MoM, although they declined 35.4% YoY [1] - SAIC Motor's new energy vehicle (NEV) sales in November reached 174,900 units, up 16.1% YoY and 11.3% MoM, with cumulative NEV sales for the year reaching 1.08 million units, a 19.5% YoY increase [1] - SAIC's IM Motors achieved sales of 10,007 units in November, marking the second consecutive month of sales exceeding 10,000 units [1] - The company is expected to benefit from Shanghai's state-owned enterprise reforms, which could improve its operational capabilities and market competitiveness [1] Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts EPS for 2024, 2025, and 2026 at 0.89 CNY, 1.06 CNY, and 1.15 CNY, respectively [2] - Revenue for 2024 is projected to be 659.8 billion CNY, with a 9.1% YoY decline, followed by an 8.3% increase in 2025 and a 6.4% increase in 2026 [4] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 10.33 billion CNY in 2024, 12.30 billion CNY in 2025, and 13.27 billion CNY in 2026 [4] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from 10.2% in 2024 to 10.9% in 2026 [4] - ROE is expected to rise from 3.5% in 2024 to 4.2% in 2026 [4] Sales Performance - SAIC Motor's sales have shown continuous improvement since August, with September and October sales growing 21.6% and 28.3% MoM, respectively [1] - SAIC Volkswagen's cumulative sales from January to November were 1.02 million units, a 5.1% YoY decline [1] - SAIC General Motors' cumulative sales from January to November were 371,000 units, a 58.6% YoY decline [1] - SAIC Motor's overseas and export sales in November were 94,200 units, a 20.0% YoY decline and 9.6% MoM decrease [1] Market and Industry Insights - The IM LS6 model, featuring advanced configurations such as the Lizard Digital Chassis and a quasi-900V platform, has shown strong competitiveness, with pre-orders exceeding 11,000 units within 48 hours of launch [1] - The company is expected to accelerate reforms under the support of the Shanghai municipal government, focusing on organizational restructuring, business reshaping, and rebuilding competitive advantages [1]