Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for Simcere Pharmaceutical (2096 HK) [1] Core Views - Simcere Pharmaceutical's new drug Xianbixin sublingual tablets have been approved for market, which is expected to synergize with the injectable form to improve stroke treatment accessibility [2] - Two other drugs, Celsera and Enlituo, have been included in the National Reimbursement Drug List (NRDL), significantly enhancing their market accessibility [3] - The company's innovative drug revenue accounted for over 70% of total revenue in H1 2024, with a noticeable increase in gross margin [4] Financial Performance - In H1 2024, Simcere Pharmaceutical's revenue from innovative drugs reached 2 2 billion yuan, accounting for 70 7% of total revenue [4] - The company's gross margin in H1 2024 was 79 1%, an increase of 3 4 percentage points compared to the same period in 2023 [4] - Revenue is projected to grow from 6 64 billion yuan in 2024 to 9 36 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to increase from 714 76 million yuan to 1 78 billion yuan over the same period [6][10] Product Pipeline - Xianbixin sublingual tablets showed a 64 4% functional recovery rate in clinical trials, significantly higher than the placebo group's 54 7% [2] - Celsera, a drug that protects bone marrow during chemotherapy, was successfully included in the NRDL and achieved localization in Hainan Province, potentially improving product gross margin [3] - Enlituo, a domestically developed EGFR monoclonal antibody, was approved in China in June 2024 and also included in the NRDL [3] Market Expectations - Xianbixin sublingual tablets are expected to achieve penetration rates of 0 9% and 3 9% in 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding revenues of 250 million yuan and 650 million yuan [9] - Celsera is projected to reach penetration rates of 4%, 12%, and 16% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with revenues of 220 million yuan, 420 million yuan, and 560 million yuan [9] - The company's overall revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18 8% from 2024 to 2026 [10]
先声药业：先必新舌下片获批上市，科赛拉、恩立妥首次进入国家医保目录