老板电器：业绩短期承压，国补驱动下期待改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 31.79 yuan, based on a 17x P/E ratio for 2025 [2][7] Core Views - The company reported a 6.78% YoY decline in revenue to 7.396 billion yuan and a 12.44% YoY drop in net profit to 1.202 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - In Q3 2024, revenue fell 11.07% YoY to 2.666 billion yuan, while net profit decreased 18.49% YoY to 443 million yuan [1] - The decline in revenue is attributed to weak upstream real estate completions, with China's residential completion area down 23.9% YoY in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company's leading position in the kitchen appliance market remains strong, with top market shares in range hoods and cooktops, and significant presence in dishwashers and built-in ovens [1] - The company's gross margin improved by 1.0 percentage points to 53.18% in Q3 2024, driven by enhanced supply chain efficiency [1] - The company's net profit margin declined by 1.5 percentage points to 16.61% in Q3 2024 due to increased sales expenses [1] Industry Outlook - The kitchen appliance industry is expected to recover, supported by nationwide appliance replacement policies [1] - Retail sales of key kitchen appliances showed strong growth in September 2024, with range hoods up 43% YoY and cooktops up 37% YoY [1] - During the Double 11 shopping festival, retail sales of kitchen appliances grew significantly, with range hoods up 30% YoY and dishwashers up 32% YoY [1] Financial Forecasts - The report revises down the company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.673 billion yuan, 1.762 billion yuan, and 1.875 billion yuan, respectively [2][7] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is projected at 1.77 yuan, 1.87 yuan, and 1.99 yuan, respectively [7] - Revenue growth is expected to rebound to 5.4% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026, following a 3.4% decline in 2024 [5] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve gradually, reaching 52.6% by 2026 [5] Market Position - The company maintains a dominant market position in key kitchen appliance categories, with leading market shares in range hoods and cooktops [1] - The company's strong brand and product portfolio position it to benefit from the industry's recovery [1]