Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company, highlighting its strong performance and potential in the cosmetics sector [4][52]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the cosmetics industry for 20 years, successfully implementing a multi-brand strategy that includes brands like Han Shu, One Leaf, and Red Elephant. The main brand, Han Shu, has seen significant growth, particularly in the Douyin channel, achieving a GMV of 3.34 billion yuan in 2023, a 374% increase from 2022 [22][10]. - The company's growth is driven by a combination of product quality, innovative marketing strategies, and effective channel management, particularly through Douyin [10][41][43]. Summary by Sections 1. Multi-Brand Strategy and Performance Recovery - The company has established itself as a leader in the domestic cosmetics market, ranking among the top five in retail sales from 2015 to 2021. In 2021, it was the only domestic company with two skincare brands achieving annual retail sales exceeding 1.5 billion yuan [22][10]. - In 2022, the company faced a revenue decline of 25.4% to 2.71 billion yuan, primarily due to supply chain issues and reduced R&D spending. However, strategic adjustments in late 2022 led to a strong recovery in 2023, particularly for the Han Shu brand [22][10]. 2. Product, Marketing, and Channel Strategies - Product: The Han Shu brand's "Red Slim Waist" anti-aging set is positioned as a high-value product, priced at 399 yuan, which offers a competitive advantage over similar products [41][38]. - Marketing: The company has effectively utilized short dramas for product placement, achieving significant exposure and engagement. Collaborations with influencers have resulted in high viewership, with some dramas reaching over 1.2 billion views [41][42]. - Channel: The company has built a robust live-streaming matrix and adjusted its influencer collaboration strategy to optimize traffic conversion. The focus has shifted from top-tier influencers to mid-tier ones for better cost efficiency [43][44]. 3. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 7.13 billion, 9.11 billion, and 10.62 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 69.1%, 27.9%, and 16.5%. Net profits are expected to reach 820 million, 1.15 billion, and 1.42 billion yuan, with growth rates of 77.4%, 40.4%, and 23.6% [51][8]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 15, 11, and 9 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [51][52].
上美股份：多品牌优质国货，主品牌韩束业绩亮眼