中国重汽：内销出口两开花，大国重汽成长可期

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking the first coverage [6][11]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the heavy truck market under the Heavy Truck Group, with heavy truck sales accounting for 56% of the group's total [6][25]. - In Q1-Q3 2024, the Heavy Truck Group sold 187,400 units, achieving a market share of 27.5%, maintaining the top position [6][25]. - Despite a significant decline in industry sales in Q3 2024, the company benefited from a notable increase in gross margin to 8.30%, resulting in a net profit of 315 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 97.88% [6][31]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance of the Core Heavy Truck Segment - The company is the leading heavy truck manufacturer under the Heavy Truck Group, with a market share of 13.98% in H1 2024, selling 70,500 units [23][25]. - The group’s market share has increased from 14.43% in 2019 to 24.92% in 2023, with a stable A-share market share around 14% [25]. 2. Product Matrix and Brand Strategy - The company has a comprehensive product matrix that aligns with market demands, particularly in the tractor truck segment, which holds a market share of 21.43% in Q1-Q3 2024 [7][42]. - The dual powertrain strategy with MAN and Weichai enhances product competitiveness, particularly in the gas heavy truck market, where sales increased from 7,500 units in H1 2023 to 27,800 units in H1 2024, with market share rising from 14.02% to 25.60% [7][61]. 3. Overseas Market Expansion - The company has capitalized on high growth in the export market, with exports exceeding 130,000 units in 2023, accounting for over 50% of group sales [8]. - The average export price per vehicle has increased from 266,800 yuan in 2020 to 305,300 yuan in H1 2024, driven by high-end product exports [8]. 4. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 46.29 billion yuan, 52.73 billion yuan, and 62.19 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.02%, 13.92%, and 17.94% [9][13]. - Expected net profits for the same period are 1.30 billion yuan, 1.57 billion yuan, and 1.89 billion yuan, with growth rates of 20.14%, 21.18%, and 19.88% [9][13].