双汇发展：肉制品领军者，高股息贡献安全边际

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Shuanghui Development (000895.SZ), with a current price of 25.50 CNY and a reasonable value of 28.22 CNY per share [2][4]. Core Insights - Shuanghui Development is a leader in the meat processing industry with a long history of stable high dividends. The company has maintained an average dividend payout ratio of 89.7% since its listing, with a high dividend yield that ranks among the top in the food and beverage sector [3][67]. - The company's performance is closely linked to the pig cycle, with slaughtering business revenue positively correlated with pig prices. The overall performance is influenced by the pig cycle and the timing of frozen meat inventory management [3][4]. - The company has a solid competitive advantage due to its nationwide production capacity, integration of industry resources, and development of upstream breeding businesses, which enhance cost control and quality management [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Shuanghui Development is a leading meat processing enterprise with a strong market position and a history of high dividends. The company has shown a stable growth trend in revenue and profit, with a significant increase in revenue from 1.54 billion CNY in 1995 to 60.1 billion CNY in 2023, reflecting a CAGR of 14.0% [58][78]. Performance and Pig Cycle Correlation - The company's slaughtering business revenue is significantly affected by the pig cycle, with a revenue share fluctuating between 50% and 65%. In 2023, this segment accounted for 51.7% of total revenue. The overall performance is most favorable when pig prices are at the end of a downward trend and beginning to rise [3][4][85]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a comprehensive national production layout and efficient cold chain logistics, which reduce transportation costs and improve market responsiveness. Additionally, it has developed both traditional and online sales channels, enhancing brand strength [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for 2024-2026 indicates a revenue decline of 2.7% in 2024, followed by growth of 3.8% and 4.7% in subsequent years. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decrease by 3.2% in 2024, with subsequent growth of 5.0% and 5.2% [4][5]. The current price corresponds to a PE ratio of 18/17/16 for the respective years, with a historical PE valuation range of 14-23 [4].