南极电商：困境反转，轻装上阵

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 6.14 CNY per share [4] Core Views - The company has been cleaning up historical burdens and strictly controlling its supply chain and distributors, transitioning to an invitation-based franchise model to improve product quality and brand image [1] - A new "self-procurement + franchise" model has been launched to reshape the Nanjiren brand, with the introduction of a "light luxury" series that has shown rapid growth in GMV [1] - The successful case of Basic House, acquired in 2022, provides a foundation for Nanjiren's transformation, with its GMV reaching 2.5 billion CNY in 2023 and aiming for 5 billion CNY in 2024 [1] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 80 million, 300 million, and 510 million CNY in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [1] Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 3.31 billion CNY in 2022 to 5.05 billion CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 22.4% [2] - EBITDA is expected to increase from 130 million CNY in 2022 to 610 million CNY in 2026 [2] - Net profit margin is forecasted to improve from -8.9% in 2022 to 10.1% in 2026 [2] Business Model Transformation - The company has shifted from a traditional retail model to a brand licensing service model, focusing on online channels and expanding product categories [34][35] - The transformation includes strict control over the supply chain and distributors, with a focus on quality and brand management [1][51] - The new "self-procurement + franchise" model aims to enhance product quality and market penetration, with the "light luxury" series targeting higher-end consumers [57][58] Brand and Market Strategy - The Nanjiren brand is being repositioned with a focus on "light luxury" quality, supported by marketing efforts including celebrity endorsements and advertising campaigns [61][62] - The company is leveraging the success of Basic House to guide the transformation of Nanjiren, with both brands sharing similarities in product categories and channels [67][71] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2024 is expected to reach 3.34 billion CNY, with a growth rate of 24.0% [2] - The company's net profit is projected to rebound significantly in 2025, with a growth rate of 293.9% [2] - The ROE is expected to improve from 2.4% in 2023 to 9.3% in 2026, indicating a recovery in profitability [2] Valuation and Investment Recommendation - The company is valued at 0.7x PE/G for 2025, with a target price of 6.14 CNY per share, based on comparable company valuations [94] - The "Buy" rating is supported by the company's strategic transformation and expected growth in profitability [94]