ZMNY(600163) 长江证券·2024-12-06 00:51Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhongmin Energy (600163 SH) [5] Core Views - The approval of the Changle B Zone offshore wind power project is expected to significantly enhance the company's profitability [2][6] - The project has a total installed capacity of 114 MW with a total investment of 1 177 billion yuan and a unit investment of 10 325 yuan per kW [2][6] - The project is expected to achieve a capital internal rate of return (IRR) of 8 21% based on 4 250 utilization hours and an on grid electricity price of 0 27 yuan per kWh [2][6] - The company's offshore wind power installed capacity will expand to 410 MW upon the completion of the Changle B Zone project [7] - The company's 2024 2026 earnings are forecasted to be 734 million yuan 1 019 billion yuan and 1 114 billion yuan respectively with corresponding EPS of 0 39 yuan 0 54 yuan and 0 59 yuan [9] Project Details - The Changle B Zone project is located in the eastern sea area of Zhanggang Street Changle District and will install 6 16 MW wind turbines and 1 18 MW wind turbine [7] - The project will utilize the existing 220 kV offshore booster station submarine cable and onshore control station from the Changle Outer Sea C Zone wind farm for grid connection [7] - The project's capital accounts for 20% of the total investment with the remaining financed through loans [6][7] - The project is expected to generate an annual profit of 131 yuan per kW before depreciation expires [7] Group Resources and Expansion - The company's parent group has committed to injecting offshore wind and pumped storage assets into the company once they meet listing conditions [8] - Potential assets for injection include the Yongtai pumped storage project with a 2023 net profit of 218 million yuan and a ROE of 16 49% [8] - The Pinghai Bay Phase III offshore wind project could achieve a ROE exceeding 30% if subsidies are confirmed [8] - The company has invested 51 million yuan to establish a joint venture for the centralized grid connection of offshore wind projects in the Changle area [8] Financial Projections - The company's 2024 2026 revenue is projected to be 1 745 billion yuan 2 63 billion yuan and 2 865 billion yuan respectively [20] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 734 million yuan 1 019 billion yuan and 1 114 billion yuan for 2024 2026 [20] - The company's PE ratios for 2024 2026 are forecasted at 16 07x 11 58x and 10 59x respectively [20]