TDTEC(600582) 华鑫证券·2024-12-06 08:58Investment Rating - Buy (首次) [2] Core Views - The company's main business is stable, and profitability is improving [2] - The coal industry's efficiency growth is driving the demand for coal machinery [2] - The company is actively responding to the "Belt and Road" initiative, with broad growth prospects in overseas markets [2] - The company has significant market advantages in new coal mine design, with a market share of over 80% [2] - The company's R&D expenses and R&D expense ratio have been increasing year by year, with R&D expense ratios of 6.31%, 6.43%, and 6.93% in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively [2] - The company has a good cooperative relationship with Huawei in 5G, data centers, and data communication products [2] Financial Forecasts - Revenue for 2024-2026 is predicted to be 31.275 billion, 32.622 billion, and 34.492 billion yuan respectively [5] - EPS for 2024-2026 is predicted to be 0.63, 0.69, and 0.75 yuan respectively [5] - The current stock price corresponds to PE ratios of 9.8, 9.0, and 8.2 times for 2024-2026 [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is predicted to be 2.61 billion, 2.836 billion, and 3.122 billion yuan respectively [7] - The growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024-2026 is predicted to be 10.7%, 8.7%, and 10.1% respectively [7] Industry Analysis - The coal industry is in a stable development cycle, and coal continues to play a role as a "stabilizer" and "ballast stone" in ensuring the stable supply of energy security in China [2] - The structural reform of the coal supply side has achieved significant results, and the industrial structure has been continuously optimized, which will have a positive impact on investment in coal infrastructure and coal machinery manufacturing [2] - The demand for coal machinery equipment will remain high, and the company's performance is expected to improve with the continuous release of intelligent coal mine demand [2] - The coal machinery industry's export business is growing rapidly, with the industry's export revenue reaching 12.56 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 59% [2] Company Performance - The company's new orders in the first half of 2024 were 20.5 billion yuan, with coal machinery equipment orders basically flat compared to the previous year [2] - The company's R&D expenses increased by 25.67%, 18.44%, and 17.59% year-on-year in 2021, 2022, and 2023 respectively [2] - The company's largest 5G private network project has been successfully implemented at the Guoneng Shendong Shangwan Coal Mine [2] - The company's international sales contracts in the first three quarters reached a new high, and the company will continue to seize the favorable opportunity of the "Belt and Road" policy to vigorously expand overseas business [2]