华能水电：季报点评：参股煤电项目，水电电价长期具备上涨空间

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [15] Core Views - The company's hydropower business is strong and sustainable, with a focus on both hydropower and new energy development [28] - The company's hydropower electricity price has long-term upward potential, supported by increasing renewable energy generation and market reforms [27] - The company's new energy generation business is expected to bring new growth opportunities [28] Market Data - Closing price: 9.41 yuan [2] - 52-week high/low: 12.25 yuan / 8.31 yuan [3] - Price-to-book ratio: 2.92x [5] - Market capitalization: 169.38 billion yuan [6] Financial Data - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024: 19.418 billion yuan, up 7.05% YoY [17] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2024: 7.226 billion yuan, up 7.78% YoY [17] - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters of 2024: 14.346 billion yuan, up 11.94% YoY [17] - Basic EPS for the first three quarters of 2024: 0.38 yuan, up 9.09% YoY [17] - ROE for the first three quarters of 2024: 9.86%, up 1.26 percentage points YoY [17] Business Performance - The company's power generation in the first three quarters of 2024 was 86.026 billion kWh, up 3.82% YoY, driven by new energy generation and increased hydropower output [18] - New energy generation in the first three quarters of 2024 was 2.971 billion kWh, up 151.57% YoY [18] - Hydropower generation in the first three quarters of 2024 was 83.056 billion kWh, up 1.69% YoY [18] - The company's financial expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2024 was 10.19%, down 0.97 percentage points YoY [18] Industry Position - The company ranks second in hydropower installed capacity among A-share companies and first in power generation capacity in Yunnan Province [20] - As of June 2024, the company's installed capacity was 29.2032 GW, with an additional 15 GW under construction or in the planning stage [25] Future Projects - The company is investing in the Yuwang Phase II coal power and new energy integration project, with a total capacity of 2×1,000 MW [26] - The company plans to add 3.09 GW of new energy capacity in 2024, providing incremental growth opportunities [25] Valuation and Forecast - The company's net profit for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 8.379 billion yuan, 9.5 billion yuan, and 10.594 billion yuan, respectively [28] - EPS for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be 0.47 yuan, 0.53 yuan, and 0.59 yuan, respectively [28] - The PE ratio for 2024-2026 is estimated at 20.21x, 17.83x, and 15.99x, respectively [28] Industry Outlook - The hydropower industry is expected to benefit from long-term electricity price increases and market reforms [27] - The company's new energy projects are expected to contribute to future growth [28]