SIEYUAN(002028) 华安证券·2024-12-06 12:36Investment Rating - Buy rating maintained for Siyuan Electric [2] Core Views - Siyuan Electric reported robust performance with Q3 2024 revenue of RMB 10.407 billion, YoY growth of 21.28%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.491 billion, YoY growth of 29.88% [4] - The company plans to invest RMB 300 million in a high-voltage intelligent gas-insulated switchgear (GIS) production base, expected to contribute to new revenue growth [4] - Forecasted revenue for 2024-2026 is RMB 15.443 billion, RMB 19.120 billion, and RMB 23.581 billion, respectively, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 2.105 billion, RMB 2.530 billion, and RMB 2.979 billion [4] Financial Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached RMB 4.241 billion, YoY growth of 29.39%, with net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 604 million, YoY growth of 34.95% [4] - Gross margin for Q3 2024 was 30.96%, down 0.84 pct YoY and 1.58 pct QoQ [4] - Forecasted gross margin for 2024-2026 is 29.2%, 28.7%, and 28.1%, respectively [4] Valuation Metrics - Forecasted P/E ratios for 2024-2026 are 29x, 24x, and 21x, respectively [4] - Forecasted P/B ratios for 2024-2026 are 4.86x, 4.05x, and 3.38x, respectively [4] - Forecasted EV/EBITDA ratios for 2024-2026 are 23.02x, 18.71x, and 15.77x, respectively [4] Growth Prospects - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 23.9%, 23.8%, and 23.3%, respectively [4] - Net profit attributable to shareholders growth rates for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 35.0%, 20.2%, and 17.7%, respectively [4] Operational Efficiency - ROE for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 16.7%, 16.7%, and 16.4%, respectively [4] - ROIC for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 15.8%, 15.9%, and 15.4%, respectively [4] Market Position - Siyuan Electric has initiated sales in the 750kV market and is expected to gain market share [4] - The company’s total market capitalization is RMB 61.3 billion, with a circulating market capitalization of RMB 47.7 billion [2]