赞宇科技：持续推出回购方案，看好盈利能力上行

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [3][24] Core Views - The company continues to roll out share repurchase plans, demonstrating confidence in its long-term development [3][4] - The price of palm oil, a key raw material, is entering an upward cycle, benefiting the company's profitability through inventory gains and tariff advantages from its Indonesian factory [4][5] - The company's OPO and other oleochemical products, as well as OEM/ODM capacity, are expected to ramp up gradually by 2025, driving profit growth [4][23] - The company is a leading player in China's oleochemical, surfactant, and personal care processing industries, with annual capacities exceeding 1 million tons for oleochemicals, 1.2 million tons for surfactants, and 1.1 million tons for OEM/ODM [24] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at 11.7/14.1/17.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.1%/20.7%/21.4% [24] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is forecasted at 210/380/480 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 1139.5%/81.8%/24.1% [24] - Diluted EPS for 2024-2026 is estimated at 0.45/0.81/1.01 yuan, with a current PE ratio of 24.0/13.3/10.7x [24] Industry Analysis - Palm oil prices have risen significantly, with prices increasing from 7,965 yuan/ton on September 10, 2024, to 10,260 yuan/ton on December 2, 2024, a 28.81% increase [5] - The company's main products, such as stearic acid and anionic surfactants, have also seen price increases, with stearic acid rising 20.11% and AES rising 27.04% over the same period [8] - Indonesia's implementation of the B40 biodiesel policy in 2025 is expected to increase palm oil consumption by approximately 2.25 million tons, supporting palm oil prices [12] Company Operations - The company plans to repurchase shares at a price not exceeding 13.99 yuan/share, with a total repurchase amount between 100-200 million yuan [3][4] - The company's Indonesian factory, Dukuda, benefits from proximity to raw materials and exemption from palm oil export taxes, enhancing profitability [19] - The company's OPO production capacity is expected to ramp up, with a planned increase from the current 20,000 tons, contributing to revenue by 2025 [23]