TZE(002129) 广发证券·2024-12-09 01:15Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to TCL Zhonghuan (002129 SZ) with a target price of CNY 12 15 per share [4] Core Views - BC (Back Contact) technology is expected to lead a new round of technological upgrades in the photovoltaic industry with clear cost reduction and efficiency improvement paths BC components are projected to achieve a 30W increase compared to Topcon components through various technological advancements [2] - TCL Zhonghuan's acquisition of Maxeon positions the company to leverage BC technology and global expansion strategies to navigate the photovoltaic cycle Maxeon holds key patents for IBC cells and Topcon battery processes enhancing TCL Zhonghuan's intellectual property protection and global brand influence [3] - The company is expected to see a recovery in profitability from 2025 driven by improved supply-demand dynamics and rising industry prices [3] Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024-2026 is projected at CNY 36 667 million 50 895 million and 60 767 million respectively with growth rates of -38 0% 38 8% and 19 4% [8] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at CNY -6 889 million 1 637 million and 2 908 million for 2024-2026 [8] - EPS for 2024-2026 is estimated at CNY -1 70 0 40 and 0 72 respectively [8] Market and Industry Analysis - Global photovoltaic installations are expected to reach 450GW 530GW and 600GW in 2024-2026 with corresponding module demand of 540GW 636GW and 720GW [11] - TCL Zhonghuan's market share in silicon wafers is projected to be 23% 21% and 20% for 2024-2026 with sales volumes of 124 2GW 133 6GW and 144 0GW [11] - The company's silicon wafer business revenue is expected to recover from 2025 with projected revenues of CNY 27 478 million 37 822 million and 44 602 million for 2024-2026 [11] Strategic Initiatives - TCL Zhonghuan plans to invest up to USD 197 5 million to acquire a controlling stake in Maxeon increasing its ownership from 22 39% to at least 50 1% [3] - The company is collaborating with Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund (PIF) and VI to build a 20GW silicon wafer project in Saudi Arabia supporting its global expansion strategy [3] Operational Performance - The company's silicon wafer business is expected to see a recovery in gross margins from -10 0% in 2024 to 12 0% and 13 0% in 2025-2026 [11] - Module shipments are projected to increase from 4GW in 2024 to 8GW and 10GW in 2025-2026 driven by integration with Maxeon's overseas channels [12]