STO(002468) 广发证券·2024-12-09 01:50Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company is a pioneer in the private express delivery sector, with accelerated market share recovery. It has established a competitive edge through a franchise model and has made significant changes to improve its operations and market position [12][16]. - The industry is experiencing a supply-demand reversal, leading to improved returns. The company is expected to benefit from this trend as it enhances its operational efficiency and market presence [16][104]. - The company is on a growth path characterized by network expansion, market share recovery, cost optimization, and revenue enhancement, with a significant increase in profitability anticipated [16][164]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 1993 and was one of the first private express delivery companies in China. It quickly expanded through a franchise model, establishing a strong market presence [40]. - The current ownership structure shows that the founders still hold a controlling stake, while Alibaba has a significant minority interest [45][49]. - The business model has evolved from a large franchise system to a mix of direct operations and franchise partnerships, enhancing operational control and efficiency [50]. Industry Supply and Demand - The express delivery industry is at the tail end of a capital cycle, with capital expenditures peaking. This has led to a more stable supply-demand balance, which is expected to improve industry profitability [104][105]. - Demand for express delivery services remains resilient, driven by the growth of e-commerce and the increasing penetration of online shopping in lower-tier cities [119][120]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see accelerated growth in profitability as it completes its three-year, 10 billion yuan expansion plan. This will enhance its operational capacity and market competitiveness [164][165]. - Short-term prospects include increased capacity and cost reductions, leading to improved profit margins. The company aims to optimize its delivery costs through technological advancements and operational efficiencies [168][173]. - The long-term outlook suggests that the company will continue to benefit from a favorable competitive environment and a focus on differentiated service offerings, which will support revenue growth and market share expansion [177][182]. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for the company indicate significant growth, with expected revenues of 48.1 billion yuan in 2024, 55.3 billion yuan in 2025, and 61.0 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 15%, and 10% respectively [196]. - The company is projected to achieve a reasonable value of 11.66 yuan per share based on a 14x PE ratio for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating [196].