CM BANK(600036) 万联证券·2024-12-09 11:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative price increase of over 15% in the next six months [2][94]. Core Insights - The retail financial business shows resilience, with retail loans growing at a rate comparable to total loan growth, and the proportion of retail loans remaining stable. Small and micro loans have seen rapid growth, increasing their share of retail loans [1][19]. - Retail deposits have surpassed retail loans, leading to a positive internal net interest income, which supports the interest income from retail financial services. However, net fee income has experienced negative growth [1][27]. - The asset quality of retail loans has shown some volatility, with rising attention and overdue rates, while corporate loan non-performing rates continue to decline [1][54]. - The bank's deposit liquidity ratio remains high compared to listed banks, and it maintains a significant cost advantage in deposits [1][73]. - The bank's strong capital position supports stable future asset expansion, and the resilience of its retail financial business is expected to stabilize fee income as wealth management sales recover [1][79]. Summary by Sections Retail Financial Business Resilience - Retail loan growth is stable, with retail loans accounting for 52.5% of total loans as of June 2024, while corporate loans account for 41.1% [19][20]. - The proportion of small and micro loans has increased by 5.1 percentage points since 2020, while the overall pricing of retail loans is below the average of listed banks, with a narrowing gap of 50 basis points [21][23]. - Retail financial business revenue contribution remains high, with revenues of 194.3 billion yuan in 2023 and 95.9 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.5% and a decline of 3% respectively [27][45]. Asset Quality and Provisions - Retail loan non-performing rates have fluctuated, but corporate loan non-performing rates have shown a steady decline. The overall non-performing rate remains stable [54][63]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio is at 432.15%, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [70][72]. Deposit Liquidity and Cost Advantage - The bank's deposit liquidity ratio exceeds 50%, with retail deposits growing at a rate of 8.9% in the first half of 2024, outpacing total deposit growth [73][74]. - The average cost of retail deposits is 1.51%, while corporate deposits are at 1.68%, reflecting effective cost management [74][75]. Capital Strength and Future Outlook - As of June 2024, the bank's core tier one capital adequacy ratio stands at 13.86%, providing a solid foundation for future asset expansion [79][80]. - The bank's earnings forecast for 2024-2026 indicates a revenue growth rate of -3.33%, 5.2%, and 4.67%, with net profit growth rates of 1.35%, 5.85%, and 5.54% respectively [88][89].